중국 : 통신 시장 예측(2026-2031년)

"IT services and premium mobile and fixed services will support modest telecoms revenue growth in China through 2031."

Analysys Mason provides detailed 5-year forecasts of the telecoms market in emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP). This report focuses on operators’ core telecoms services in China.

This report provides:

• a 5-year forecast of mobile and fixed KPIs for China
• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service
• an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics
• a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

Geographical coverage

Region modelled

• Emerging Asia–Pacific

Country modelled individually

• China

Key performance indicators

Connections

• Mobile:
  • total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT
  • handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
  • mobile broadband
  • total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
  • business, residential
  • total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
  • IoT
  • penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT
• Fixed:
  • voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
  • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTB/P, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, gigabit-capable connections
  • business, residential
  • dedicated connections
  • penetration (business sites and households): voice, broadband (ADSL/VDSL, FTTB/P, cable modem, FWA, other technologies)
• Pay TV
  • operator, traditional
  • business, residential

Traffic

• Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
• Cellular data and messaging traffic

Network-independent metrics

• GDP
• Population
• Households
• Business sites
• Exchange rates

Service revenue

• Mobile:
  • total
  • share of GDP
  • per capita per month
  • residential, business
  • prepaid, contract, prepaid share
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
• Fixed:
  • total (retail plus wholesale)
  • share of GDP
  • per capita per month

Retail revenue

• Mobile:
  • total
  • share of GDP
  • per capita per month
  • business, residential
  • per GB
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
  • voice, voice per minute
  • data, data per GB
  • handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
  • mobile broadband
  • IoT connectivity
• Fixed:
  • total
  • share of GDP
  • per capita per month
  • business, residential
  • voice: narrowband, VoBB
  • dedicated connections
  • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, as a share of fixed retail revenue
• ICT services
• Pay TV
  • operator, traditional
  • business, residential

Wholesale revenue

• Mobile
• Fixed

ASPU

• Mobile:
  • total
  • voice
  • data
  • mobile broadband
  • IoT
  • handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data
  • business, residential
• Fixed:
  • voice
  • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies
  • business, residential

ARPU

• Mobile:
  • total
  • prepaid, contract
  • business, residential
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G