실리콘 포토닉스, LPO/LRO 및 NPO/CPO 시장(2027-2037년)

Silicon photonics builds optical functions - the generation, modulation, routing, and detection of light - directly onto silicon chips using the same fabrication infrastructure that produces conventional electronics. For most of its history the technology was understood as an efficiency improvement: a way to move data faster and with less power than copper allows. By 2026 that framing no longer captures the market. Artificial intelligence and high-performance computing require enormous volumes of data to move at tremendous speed between chips, servers, and racks, and current accelerator architectures have pushed copper interconnect to its physical limits. The result is an interconnect bottleneck, in which expensive, power-hungry accelerators sit idle waiting for data rather than computing. Silicon photonics has become the industry's structural answer, moving information in photons rather than electrons - photons travel faster, lose far less signal over distance, and carry more information per channel. Optical transceivers remain the application that drives the industry. Data rates have doubled every few years - 100G, 200G, 400G, 800G - and 2026 saw the commercialisation of 1.6-terabit transceivers, with 3.2T expected to sample around 2027 and 6.4T following in the early 2030s. As rates climb, even the short copper trace between an optical engine and the switch or accelerator ASIC limits performance, which is why co-packaged optics (CPO) and near-package optics (NPO) - moving the optical engine onto the ASIC substrate - have become the central packaging story of the decade, alongside linear-drive pluggable and receive optics (LPO/LRO) that strip power-hungry DSP from the link.

A fundamental constraint shapes the whole market: silicon's indirect bandgap means a practical pure-silicon laser cannot be built, which has spawned an ecosystem of complementary material platforms - III-V, lithium niobate, silicon nitride, polymer, plasmonic - and heterogeneous-integration techniques. Beyond datacom, photonic quantum computing has matured into a credible commercial segment, attracting roughly US$2.1 billion in private capital in 2025 and overtaking superconducting systems, thanks to room-temperature operation and CMOS-foundry compatibility. Further demand comes from telecommunications, FMCW LiDAR and sensing, and biomedical uses.

Silicon Photonics, LPO/LRO and NPO/CPO: Global Market 2027-2037 is a comprehensive market and technology assessment of the silicon-photonics and photonic-integrated-circuit (PIC) industry across the 2027–2037 forecast period. It arrives at an inflection point: with copper interconnect exhausted and AI infrastructure demanding unprecedented bandwidth, silicon photonics has shifted from an efficiency improvement to the structural foundation of next-generation data movement. The report frames the market around its two demand engines - AI-driven data communications and the newly commercial photonic-quantum segment - and quantifies the transition to co-packaged optics (CPO), near-package optics (NPO), and linear-drive pluggable and receive optics (LPO/LRO).

The analysis pairs detailed technology explanation with granular, segmented forecasts. Beyond datacom, the report covers competing and complementary platforms, the "copper wall" and beachfront-density crisis, manufacturing challenges and the capacity shift to Southeast Asia, divergent CPO ecosystems (NVIDIA vs. Broadcom) and the TSMC COUPE platform, and application markets spanning telecommunications, AI and computing, quantum, LiDAR and sensing, biomedical, instrumentation, defence, and microwave photonics. It includes an ecosystem market map, regional analysis, and 160 detailed company profiles, making it a decision-grade reference for investors, chip and system vendors, hyperscalers, foundries, and component suppliers navigating the interconnect transition.

Content covered includes:

• Market sizing and 2027–2037 forecasts on both CPO and broad-market bases, with base/bull/bear scenarios, unit shipments, and CAGRs
• Silicon-photonics technology primer: PICs, optical I/O and couplers, lasers and photon sources, photodetectors, III-V integration, modulators and Mach-Zehnder interferometers, waveguides, and optical-component density
• Transceiver evolution roadmap (100G → 1.6T → 3.2T → 6.4T): form factors, process nodes, power, and cost-per-Gbps
• CPO, NPO, and LPO/LRO architectures; scale-out vs. scale-up; NVIDIA and Broadcom ecosystems; TSMC COUPE packaging
• Competing/complementary platforms: III-V, lithium niobate, silicon nitride, polymer, metaphotonics, and plasmonics
• Structural themes: the copper wall and beachfront-density crisis, photonic AI acceleration, and the manufacturing shift to Southeast Asia
• Application segments: data communications, telecommunications, AI & computing, quantum, LiDAR & sensing, biomedical, instrumentation & metrology, defence & aerospace, energy & industrial, consumer, and microwave photonics
• Manufacturing, packaging, coupling, yield, and supply-chain challenges
• Regional analysis (North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, RoW) and research institutes
• Ecosystem market map and 160 company profiles across the value chain including Accelink Technologies, Aeva Technologies, AEPONYX, Advantest, AIM Photonics, AIO Core, Alibaba Cloud, Amazon (AWS), ANSYS, Advanced Micro Foundry (AMF), Amkor Technology, AMO GmbH, Analog Photonics, Anello Photonics, Aryballe, ASE Technology Holdings, Aurora Innovation, Avicena, Axalume, Ayar Labs, Baidu, Bay Photonics, BE Epitaxy Semiconductor, Broadcom, Black Semiconductor, Broadex Technologies, CamGraPhIC, CEA-Leti, Centera Photonics, Cambridge Industries Group (CIG), Cisco, Coherent, CompoundTek, Crealights Technology, Credo Technology Group, CyberRidge, DenseLight, EFFECT Photonics, Eoptolink, Ephos, Fabrinet, Fast Photonics, Shenzhen Fibertop Technology, ficonTEC, FOCI (Fiber Optical Communication Inc.), FormFactor, Fujitsu, Genalyte, Gigalight, GlobalFoundries, Guangzhou CanSemi Technology, HGGenuine, Hisense Broadband Multimedia Technologies, HyperLight, HyperPhotonix, ICON Photonics, Intel, imec, Infleqtion, iPronics, JCET Group, Ki3 Photonics and more.....

Table of Contents

1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• 2.1 Market Overview
• 2.2 Electronic and Photonic Integration Compared
• 2.3 Silicon Photonic Transceiver Evolution
• 2.4 Market Map
• 2.5 Global Market Trends in Silicon Photonics
• 2.6 Competing and Complementary Photonics Technologies
  • 2.6.1 Metaphotonics
  • 2.6.2 III-V Photonics
  • 2.6.3 Lithium Niobate Photonics
  • 2.6.4 Polymer Photonics
  • 2.6.5 Plasmonic Photonics
• 2.7 Potential of Photonic AI Acceleration
• 2.8 The Copper Wall and the Beachfront-Density Crisis
• 2.9 Manufacturing Capacity Shifts to Southeast Asia
• 2.10 Commercial deployment of silicon photonics
• 2.11 Co-Packaged Optics
  • 2.11.1 Divergent CPO Ecosystems: NVIDIA and Broadcom
  • 2.11.2 The TSMC COUPE Packaging Platform
• 2.12 Manufacturing challenges
• 2.13 The Market Opportunity
• 2.14 Regional Strengths & Research Focus

3 INTRODUCTION TO SILICON PHOTONICS

• 3.1 What is Silicon Photonics?
  • 3.1.1 Definition and Principles of Silicon Photonics
  • 3.1.2 Comparison with traditional technologies
  • 3.1.3 Silicon and Photonic Integrated Circuits
  • 3.1.4 Optical IO, Coupling and Couplers
  • 3.1.5 Emission and Photon Sources/Lasers
  • 3.1.6 Detection and Photodetectors
  • 3.1.7 Compound Semiconductor Lasers and Photodetectors (III-V)
  • 3.1.8 Modulation, Modulators, and Mach-Zehnder Interferometers
    • 3.1.8.1 New modulator technologies
  • 3.1.9 Light Propagation and Waveguides
  • 3.1.10 Optical Component Density
• 3.2 Advantages of Silicon Photonics
• 3.3 Applications of Silicon Photonics
• 3.4 Comparison with Other Photonic Integration Technologies
• 3.5 Evolution from Electronic to Photonic Integration
• 3.6 Silicon Photonics vs Traditional Electronics
• 3.7 Modern high-performance AI data centers
• 3.8 Core Technology Components
  • 3.8.1 Optical IO, Coupling and Couplers
  • 3.8.2 Emission and Photon Sources/Lasers
    • 3.8.2.1 III-V Integration Challenges
    • 3.8.2.2 Laser Integration Approaches
  • 3.8.3 Detection and Photodetectors
  • 3.8.4 Modulation Technologies
    • 3.8.4.1 Mach-Zehnder Interferometers
    • 3.8.4.2 Ring Modulators
    • 3.8.4.3 Micro-Ring Modulators as a Competitive Differentiator
  • 3.8.5 Light Propagation and Waveguides
  • 3.8.6 Optical Component Density
• 3.9 Basic Optical Data Transmission

4 MATERIALS AND COMPONENTS

• 4.1 Silicon
  • 4.1.1 Silicon as a Photonic Material
    • 4.1.1.1 Optical Properties of Silicon
    • 4.1.1.2 Fabrication Processes for Silicon Photonics
  • 4.1.2 Silicon-on-insulator (SOI)
    • 4.1.2.1 SOI Manufacturing Process
    • 4.1.2.2 Key SOI Players
• 4.2 Germanium
  • 4.2.1 Germanium Integration in Silicon Photonics
  • 4.2.2 Germanium Photodetectors
  • 4.2.3 Germanium-on-Silicon Modulators
• 4.3 Silicon Nitride
  • 4.3.1 Silicon Nitride (SiN) in Photonics Integrated Circuits
  • 4.3.2 Optical Properties and Fabrication of SiN
  • 4.3.3 SiN Modulator Technologies
  • 4.3.4 SiN Applications in Photonics Integrated Circuits
  • 4.3.5 Advances in SiN Modulator Technologies
  • 4.3.6 SiN-based Waveguides and Devices
  • 4.3.7 SiN Performance Analysis
  • 4.3.8 Applications of SiN in Photonics
  • 4.3.9 SiN PIC Players
  • 4.3.10 SiN Key Foundries
• 4.4 Thin Film Lithium Niobate (TFLN)
  • 4.4.1 Overview
  • 4.4.2 Lithium Niobate on Insulator (LNOI)
    • 4.4.2.1 Overview of LNOI Technology
    • 4.4.2.2 Characteristics and Properties of LNOI
    • 4.4.2.3 LNOI Fabrication Processes
    • 4.4.2.4 LNOI-based Modulator and Switch Technologies
    • 4.4.2.5 Trends Toward Higher Speed and Improved Power Efficiency
    • 4.4.2.6 High-Speed LNOI Modulators
      • 4.4.2.6.1 Energy-Efficient LNOI Devices
      • 4.4.2.6.2 Emerging LNOI Device Technologies
• 4.5 Indium Phosphide
  • 4.5.1 Indium Phosphide (InP) Integration
    • 4.5.1.1 InP as a Direct Bandgap Semiconductor
    • 4.5.1.2 InP-based Active Components
    • 4.5.1.3 Hybrid Integration of InP with Silicon Photonics
  • 4.5.2 InP PIC Players
• 4.6 Barium Titanite and Rare Earth metals
  • 4.6.1 Barium Titanate (BTO) Modulators
• 4.7 Organic Polymer on Silicon
  • 4.7.1 Polymer-based Modulators
• 4.8 Wafer Processing
  • 4.8.1 Wafer Sizes by Platform
  • 4.8.2 Processing Challenges
  • 4.8.3 Yield Management
• 4.9 Hybrid and Heterogeneous Integration
  • 4.9.1 Monolithic Integration
  • 4.9.2 Hybrid Integration
  • 4.9.3 Heterogeneous Integration
  • 4.9.4 III-V-on-Silicon
  • 4.9.5 Bonding and Die-Attachment Techniques
  • 4.9.6 Monolithic versus Hybrid Integration

5 ADVANCED PACKAGING TECHNOLOGIES

• 5.1 Evolution of Packaging Technologies
  • 5.1.1 Traditional Packaging Approaches
  • 5.1.2 Advanced Packaging Roadmap
  • 5.1.3 Key Performance Metrics
• 5.2 2.5D Integration Technologies
  • 5.2.1 Silicon Interposer Technology
  • 5.2.2 Organic Substrate Options
• 5.3 3D Integration Approaches
  • 5.3.1 Through-Silicon Via (TSV)
    • 5.3.1.1 TSV Manufacturing Process
    • 5.3.1.2 TSV Challenges and Solutions
  • 5.3.2 Hybrid Bonding Technologies
    • 5.3.2.1 Cu-Cu Bonding
    • 5.3.2.2 Direct Bonding
• 5.4 Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
  • 5.4.1 CPO Architecture Overview
  • 5.4.2 Benefits and Challenges
  • 5.4.3 Integration Approaches
    • 5.4.3.1 2D Integration
    • 5.4.3.2 2.5D Integration
    • 5.4.3.3 3D Integration
  • 5.4.4 Thermal Management
  • 5.4.5 Optical Coupling Solutions
• 5.5 Optical Alignment
  • 5.5.1 Active vs Passive Alignment
  • 5.5.2 Coupling Efficiency
• 5.6 Manufacturing Challenges

6 OPTICAL INTERCONNECT ARCHITECTURES FOR AI: PLUGGABLES, LPO/LRO, NPO AND CPO

• 6.1 The Rise and Challenges of Large Language Models (LLMs)
  • 6.1.1 The Explosive Growth of AI and Generative AI
    • 6.1.1.1 Historical Context and Acceleration
    • 6.1.1.2 Compute Demand Scaling
    • 6.1.1.3 Generative AI Market Expansion
  • 6.1.2 Modern High-Performance AI Data Centre Requirements
    • 6.1.2.1 Compute Density Requirements
    • 6.1.2.2 Network Topology Requirements
    • 6.1.2.3 Availability and Reliability Requirements
  • 6.1.3 NVIDIA’s State-of-the-Art AI Systems
    • 6.1.3.1 DGX H100 and HGX H100
    • 6.1.3.2 Blackwell and Rubin Architectures
  • 6.1.4 Switches: Key Components in Modern Data Centres
    • 6.1.4.1 Switch Hierarchy in AI Data Centres
• 6.2 Scale-Up, Scale-Out, and Scale-Across Networks
  • 6.2.1 Scale-Up Networks: GPU-to-GPU Interconnects
    • 6.2.1.1 NVIDIA NVLink Implementation
  • 6.2.2 Scale-Out Networks: Rack-to-Rack Communications
    • 6.2.2.1 Ethernet-Based Scale-Out
    • 6.2.2.2 InfiniBand for AI
    • 6.2.2.3 CPO Value Proposition for Scale-Out
  • 6.2.3 Scale-Up, Scale-Out, and Scale-Across Comparison
  • 6.2.4 Roadmap of Interconnect Technology for Network Switches in High-End Data Centres
    • 6.2.4.1 Technology Generations
  • 6.2.5 SerDes Bottleneck in High-Bandwidth Systems
    • 6.2.5.1 SerDes Function
    • 6.2.5.2 Channel Loss Challenges
  • 6.2.6 Solutions to SerDes Bottlenecks in High-Bandwidth Systems
    • 6.2.6.1 Linear-Drive Electronics
    • 6.2.6.2 Near-Package Optics
    • 6.2.6.3 Co-Packaged Optics
  • 6.2.7 Pluggable Optics: Current Bottlenecks and Limitations
    • 6.2.7.1 Form Factor Constraints
    • 6.2.7.2 Electrical Interface Limitations
  • 6.2.8 On-Board Optics (OBO)
    • 6.2.8.1 CPO Architecture
    • 6.2.8.2 Key Enabling Technologies
    • 6.2.8.3 Performance Benefits
    • 6.2.8.4 Implementation Challenges
  • 6.2.9 Transmission Losses in Pluggable Optical Transceiver Connections
  • 6.2.10 Pluggable Optics vs. CPO
  • 6.2.11 Design Decisions for CPO Compared to Pluggables
  • 6.2.12 Advancements in Switch IC Bandwidth and the Need for CPO Technology
    • 6.2.12.1 Bandwidth Scaling Trajectory
  • 6.2.13 L2 Frontside Network Architecture Diagram: CPO vs. Non-CPO
• 6.3 Challenges in Compute Switch Interconnects (Optical I/O) for High-End Data Centres
  • 6.3.1 Number of Copper Wires in Current AI System Interconnects
    • 6.3.1.1 NVLink Copper Cable Count
  • 6.3.2 Limitations of Current Copper Systems in AI
  • 6.3.3 NVIDIA’s Connectivity Choices: Copper vs. Optical for High-Bandwidth Systems
    • 6.3.3.1 Current Generation: Copper-Centric
    • 6.3.3.2 Future Generation: Optical-First
  • 6.3.4 Strategic Implications
  • 6.3.5 Copper vs. Optical for High-Bandwidth Systems: Benchmark
  • 6.3.6 Migration from Copper to Optical Interconnects for High-End AI Systems
  • 6.3.7 Current AI System Architecture
  • 6.3.8 L1 Backside Compute Architecture with Copper Systems
  • 6.3.9 L1 Backside Compute Architecture with Optical Interconnect: Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
• 6.4 Future AI Systems in High-End Data Centres
  • 6.4.1 Power Efficiency Comparison: CPO vs. Pluggable Optics vs. Copper Interconnects
    • 6.4.1.1 Power Consumption Breakdown
  • 6.4.2 Latency of 60cm Data Transmission Technology Benchmark
  • 6.4.3 Future AI Architecture (Short to Mid-Term)
  • 6.4.4 Future AI Architecture (Long-Term)

7 CO-PACKAGED OPTICS (CPO)

• 7.1 Photonic Integrated Circuits (PICs) Key Concepts
  • 7.1.1 What are Photonic Integrated Circuits (PICs)?
    • 7.1.1.1 Fundamental Definition
    • 7.1.1.2 Material Platforms
    • 7.1.1.3 Integration Levels
  • 7.1.2 PICs vs. Silicon Photonics: What are the Differences?
    • 7.1.2.1 Silicon Photonics: A Specific Implementation
    • 7.1.2.2 Why Silicon Photonics Dominates CPO
  • 7.1.3 PIC Architecture
    • 7.1.3.1 Transmit Path Architecture
    • 7.1.3.2 Receive Path Architecture
    • 7.1.3.3 Supporting Functions
    • 7.1.3.4 Advantages and Challenges of PICs
• 7.2 Optical Engine (OE)
  • 7.2.1 What is an Optical Engine?
    • 7.2.1.1 Optical Engine Composition
    • 7.2.1.2 Optical Engine vs. Pluggable Transceiver
  • 7.2.2 How an Optical Engine Works
    • 7.2.2.1 Transmit Path Operation
    • 7.2.2.2 Receive Path Operation
    • 7.2.2.3 Critical Performance Parameters
  • 7.2.3 Optical Power Supplies
    • 7.2.3.1 Why External Laser Sources?
    • 7.2.3.2 External Laser Source Architectures
    • 7.2.3.3 Optical Power Delivery
• 7.3 Three Key Concepts in Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
  • 7.3.1 Concept 1: Proximity Integration
  • 7.3.2 Concept 2: Functional Partitioning
  • 7.3.3 Concept 3: Coherent Ecosystem Development
  • 7.3.4 Key Technology Building Blocks for CPO
    • 7.3.4.1 Silicon Photonics PIC
    • 7.3.4.2 Electronic IC (EIC)
    • 7.3.4.3 EIC-PIC Integration
    • 7.3.4.4 Fibre Array Units (FAUs)
    • 7.3.4.5 External Laser Source
    • 7.3.4.6 Advanced Packaging Platform
  • 7.3.5 Benefits of CPO: Latency Reduction
    • 7.3.5.1 Sources of Latency in Optical Interconnects
    • 7.3.5.2 CPO Latency Advantages
  • 7.3.6 Benefits of CPO: Power Consumption Reduction
    • 7.3.6.1 Power Consumption Breakdown
    • 7.3.6.2 Why CPO Consumes Less Power
  • 7.3.7 Benefits of CPO: Data Rate Improvements
    • 7.3.7.1 Pluggable Scaling Limitations
    • 7.3.7.2 CPO Scaling Advantages
    • 7.3.7.3 Data Rate Scaling Roadmap
    • 7.3.7.4 The 200G-per-Lane Transition and Silicon Photonics
    • 7.3.7.5 Modulator Technology Roadmap and Emerging Materials
    • 7.3.7.6 Technology Trends in CPO Driven by Rising Data Rates
    • 7.3.7.7 Applicability of Wavelength-Division Multiplexing (WDM)
    • 7.3.7.8 Physical Limits on Fibre Count: The Beachfront (Shoreline) Constraint
    • 7.3.7.9 Increasing the Number of WDM Channels: Technical Challenges
    • 7.3.7.10 The End-to-End Optical Link Budget
  • 7.3.8 Overview of Value Proposition of CPO
    • 7.3.8.1 Value for Hyperscale Data Centre Operators
    • 7.3.8.2 Value for Network Equipment Vendors
    • 7.3.8.3 Value for the Technology Ecosystem
  • 7.3.9 Future Challenges in CPO
    • 7.3.9.1 Manufacturing and Yield Challenges
    • 7.3.9.2 Thermal Management Challenges
    • 7.3.9.3 Serviceability and Reliability Challenges
    • 7.3.9.4 Ecosystem and Standardisation Challenges
    • 7.3.9.5 Cost Challenges
    • 7.3.9.6 Test and Manufacturing Scale-Up
• 7.4 CPO Standards
  • 7.4.1 OIF Co-Packaging Framework
  • 7.4.2 OCI-MSA (Optical Compute Interconnect Multi-Source Agreement)
  • 7.4.3 OIF Standards for 1.6T and 3.2T CPO Module
  • 7.4.4 External Laser Small Form Pluggable (ELSFP) Implementation Agreement
  • 7.4.5 Telemetry and Management
  • 7.4.6 OIF’s CEI-112G XSR / XSR+ PAM4
  • 7.4.7 UCIe Standard and Its Relationship to CPO
  • 7.4.8 XPO and Open CPX Initiatives
  • 7.4.9 Near-Package Optics (NPO) as an Intermediate Path

8 CO-PACKAGED OPTICS MARKET ANALYSIS

• 8.1 CPO Market Definition and Scope
• 8.2 CPO Market Size and Growth Projections
• 8.3 Switch CPO Market Analysis
  • 8.3.1 Market Overview and Drivers
  • 8.3.2 Deployment Timeline and Adoption Phases
  • 8.3.3 Volume Projections and Market Sizing
  • 8.3.4 Market Concentration and Regional Distribution
  • 8.3.5 Pricing Trajectory and Cost Dynamics
• 8.4 XPU Optical I/O Market Analysis
  • 8.4.1 Market Drivers and Value Proposition
  • 8.4.2 Adoption Timeline and Platform Evolution
  • 8.4.3 Volume and Revenue Projections
  • 8.4.4 Market Segmentation by Platform
  • 8.4.5 Technology Requirements and Differentiation
• 8.5 CPO Pricing and Cost Analysis
  • 8.5.1 Current Pricing Landscape
  • 8.5.2 Cost Trajectory and Reduction Drivers
  • 8.5.3 Cost Parity Timeline and Dynamics
  • 8.5.4 Pricing Strategy Implications
• 8.6 Regional Market Dynamics
  • 8.6.1 North America
  • 8.6.2 Asia-Pacific
  • 8.6.3 Europe
  • 8.6.4 Rest of World
• 8.7 Total Addressable Market Analysis
  • 8.7.1 Core TAM Segments
  • 8.7.2 Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM)
• 8.8 Market Forecast by Component
• 8.9 Market Forecast by Technology Generation
  • 8.9.1 Optical Engine Bandwidth Evolution
  • 8.9.2 Generation Lifecycle Analysis
• 8.10 Market Restraints and Barriers
  • 8.10.1 Manufacturing Yield and Cost
  • 8.10.2 Serviceability and Field Replacement Concerns
  • 8.10.3 Standards Maturity and Interoperability
  • 8.10.4 Supply Chain Capacity Constraints
  • 8.10.5 Competitive Alternatives
• 8.11 Adoption Curve Analysis
  • 8.11.1 Technology Adoption Framework
    • 8.11.1.1 Innovators (2024-2026)
    • 8.11.1.2 Early Adopters (2026-2028)
    • 8.11.1.3 Early Majority (2028-2031)
    • 8.11.1.4 Laggards (2034+)
  • 8.11.2 Segment-Specific Adoption Curves
• 8.12 Adoption Accelerators and Inhibitors
  • 8.12.1 Adoption Curve Implications
• 8.13 Competitive Landscape Evolution
  • 8.13.1 Current Competitive Positioning
  • 8.13.2 Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs)
  • 8.13.3 Silicon Photonics Specialists
  • 8.13.4 Foundry/OSAT Providers
  • 8.13.5 System Vendors
  • 8.13.6 Laser Suppliers
  • 8.13.7 Competitive Dynamics and Market Structure Evolution
    • 8.13.7.1 Near-Term Dynamics (2025-2028)
    • 8.13.7.2 Expected Evolution (2028)
    • 8.13.7.3 Mid-Term Dynamics (2028-2032)
      • 8.13.7.3.1 Expected Evolution (2032)
    • 8.13.7.4 Long-Term Dynamics (2032-2037)
      • 8.13.7.4.1 Expected Evolution (2037)
  • 8.13.8 Vertical Integration Trends
    • 8.13.8.1 Integration Strategy Framework
      • 8.13.8.1.1 Full Vertical Integration
      • 8.13.8.1.2 Partial Integration
      • 8.13.8.1.3 Fabless/Assembly-Light
      • 8.13.8.1.4 Platform Provider
    • 8.13.8.2 Strategic Implications of Integration Trends
  • 8.13.9 Recent Developments — Q1
  • 8.13.10 Recent Developments — Q2
• 8.14 Scenario Analysis
  • 8.14.1 Scenario Framework
  • 8.14.2 Scenario Definitions
  • 8.14.3 Bull Case Scenario
  • 8.14.4 Base Case Scenario
  • 8.14.5 Bear Case Scenario
  • 8.14.6 Optical transceiver market
  • 8.14.7 Scenario Comparison and Key Variables

9 GLOBAL MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS 2027–2037

• 9.1 Headline Market Model 2027–2037
• 9.2 Market Segmentation by Application 2027–2037
• 9.3 Market Segmentation by Interconnect Architecture 2027–2037
• 9.4 Modules and PIC Dies 2027–2037
  • 9.4.1 Global Silicon Photonics and Photonic Integrated Circuits Market Overview
    • 9.4.1.1 Market Size and Growth Trends
    • 9.4.1.2 Market Segmentation by Application
    • 9.4.1.3 Server Boards, CPUs and Accelerators
    • 9.4.1.4 Modules & PICs (Dies) Market Forecast 2027–2037
    • 9.4.1.5 SOI Wafers for Silicon Photonics
    • 9.4.1.6 LPO & New Modulator Materials Market Forecast 2027–2037
  • 9.4.2 Datacom Applications
    • 9.4.2.1 Market Forecast
      • 9.4.2.1.1 Datacom and Telecom Modules and PICs
      • 9.4.2.1.2 PIC Transceivers for AI
      • 9.4.2.1.3 PIC Transceiver Pricing
    • 9.4.2.2 PIC Transceiver Cost per Gigabit
    • 9.4.2.3 PIC Datacom Transceiver Market
    • 9.4.2.4 Datacom Transceiver Revenue by Customer Type
• 9.5 Quantum PIC Market
  • 9.5.1. Key Drivers and Restraints
  • 9.5.2 Co-Packaged Optics
  • 9.5.3 Telecom Applications
    • 9.5.3.1 Market Forecast
      • 9.5.3.1.1 PIC-based Transceivers for 5G and 6G
    • 9.5.3.2 Key Drivers and Restraints
  • 9.5.4 Sensing Applications
    • 9.5.4.1 Market Forecast
    • 9.5.4.2 Key Drivers and Restraints
  • 9.5.5 Photonic Integrated Circuit Market, by Material

10 SUPPLY CHAIN, TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

• 10.1 SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYSIS
  • 10.1.1 Foundries and Wafer Suppliers
    • 10.1.1.1 CMOS Foundries
    • 10.1.1.2 Specialty Photonics Foundries
    • 10.1.1.3 Indium Phosphide Wafer Supply
  • 10.1.2 Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs)
    • 10.1.2.1 Fabless Companies
    • 10.1.2.2 Fully Integrated Photonics Companies
  • 10.1.3 Foundries and Wafer Suppliers
  • 10.1.4 Packaging and Testing
    • 10.1.4.1 Chip-Scale Packaging
    • 10.1.4.2 Module-Level Packaging
    • 10.1.4.3 Testing and Characterization
    • 10.1.4.4 Optical Module Assembly: The Shift to Southeast Asia
    • 10.1.4.5 The EML Laser Shortage
  • 10.1.5 System Integrators and End-Users
    • 10.1.5.1 CPO Partner Ecosystems: NVIDIA and Broadco
• 10.2 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
  • 10.2.1 Laser Integration Techniques
    • 10.2.1.1 Direct Epitaxial Growth
    • 10.2.1.2 Flip-Chip Bonding
    • 10.2.1.3 Hybrid Integration
    • 10.2.1.4 Advances and Challenges
  • 10.2.2 Modulator Technologies
    • 10.2.2.1 Silicon Modulators
    • 10.2.2.2 Germanium Modulators
    • 10.2.2.3 Lithium Niobate Modulators
    • 10.2.2.4 Polymer Modulators
      • 10.2.2.4.1 Tower Semiconductor and Lightwave Logic EO-Polymer
  • 10.2.3 Photodetector Technologies
    • 10.2.3.1 Silicon Photodetectors
    • 10.2.3.2 Germanium Photodetectors
    • 10.2.3.3 III-V Photodetectors
  • 10.2.4 Waveguide and Coupling Innovations
    • 10.2.4.1 Silicon Waveguides
    • 10.2.4.2 Silicon Nitride Waveguides
    • 10.2.4.3 Coupling Techniques
  • 10.2.5 Packaging and Integration Advancements
    • 10.2.5.1 Chip-Scale Packaging
  • 10.2.6 Wafer-Scale Integration
    • 10.2.6.1 3D Integration and Interposer Technologies
• 10.3 CHALLENGES AND FUTURE TRENDS
  • 10.3.1 CMOS-Foundry-Compatible Devices and Integration
    • 10.3.1.1 Scaling and Miniaturization
    • 10.3.1.2 Process Complexity and Yield Improvement
    • 10.3.1.3 Energy-Efficient Photonic Devices
    • 10.3.1.4 Thermal Optimization Techniques
  • 10.3.2 Packaging and Testing
    • 10.3.2.1 Advanced Packaging Solutions
    • 10.3.2.2 Automated Testing and Characterization
  • 10.3.3 Scalability and Cost-Effectiveness
    • 10.3.3.1 Wafer-Scale Integration
    • 10.3.3.2 Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT)
  • 10.3.4 Emerging Materials and Hybrid Integration
    • 10.3.4.1 Novel Semiconductor Materials
    • 10.3.4.2 Heterogeneous Integration Approaches
  • 10.3.5 Technology Readiness Assessment

11 COMPANY PROFILES (160 company profiles)

12 REFERENCES