미국의 H2 ICE 트럭 산업 CO2 배출량 수명주기(2024-2040년)

Clean H2 Production Sources and the Adoption of H2 ICE as an Intermediate Solution are Driving Transformational Growth by Significantly Reducing CO2 Emissions

In this study, Frost & Sullivan offers a comprehensive exploration of the carbon dioxide (CO2) trail of a hydrogen internal combustion engine (H2 ICE) truck by investigating the carbon emission implications, focusing on H2 as a prospective fuel for the trucking industry in the United States. Our analysis begins with the rationale for considering H2, highlighting its potential to mitigate life cycle emissions compared to conventional fuels.

We delve into various H2 production methods, ranging from grey H2 to renewable sources, each carrying distinct carbon footprints. Emphasis falls on the CO2 emissions associated with manufacturing H2 ICE vehicles, pinpointing significant contributions from components, including the H2 engine and storage tanks. Frost & Sullivan also projects total CO2 emissions throughout the operation of a truck, drawing comparative insights with its battery electric, fuel cell electric, and diesel truck counterparts.

Ultimately, this study underscores the urgency of transitioning to cleaner H2 production methods and optimizing vehicle manufacturing to achieve substantial CO2 emission reductions in the trucking industry.

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the CO2 Emissions Life Cycle in the H2 ICE Truck Industry

Transformative Megatrends

Why

• Clean transportation is gaining momentum as a megatrend, with new mobility models shaping the industry's future.
• Various types of clean transportation, such as hydrogen internal combustion engine (H2 ICE) vehicles, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), are gaining traction.

Frost Perspective

• The trucking industry's adoption of near-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emission powertrains, such as H2 ICE, will largely depend on the cost of ownership, the state of the H2 infrastructure, and government support.
• Industry transformation will lead to the emergence of new players and disruption among existing players.

Industry Convergence

Why

• A life cycle CO2 emission assessment brings different industry segments together. Energy sourcing companies, H2 generation plants, fuel transportation operators, and fuel dispensing outlets must collaborate to ensure the carbon trail for an H2 ICE remains minimal.

Frost Perspective

• Regulatory authorities must lay out CO2 tracking plans to ensure all industry players understand the importance of achieving total life cycle CO2 neutrality. A few countries have begun rolling out regulations to track CO2 emissions; Frost & Sullivan expects the United States and Europe to lead the regulatory environment by 2030.

Geopolitical Chaos

Why

• The life cycle assessment of zero-emission trucks goes beyond borders. For example, Australia and the Republic of the Congo mine minerals for batteries, China refines the minerals, South Korea assembles the batteries, and the final vehicles operate in the United States. As such, stakeholders must ensure carbon neutrality across the global supply chain.

Frost Perspective

• Truck original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and regulatory authorities must plan for global supply chain constraints, with a push toward local manufacturing to ensure more control of the complete process and avoid geopolitical impacts on the transition to clean-energy transportation.

Research Scope

Content Present in Points

• Base Year: 2023
• Study Period: 2023-2030 (purchase years); 2023-2036 (user years)
• Forecast Period: 2024-2030 (purchase years); 2024-2036 (user years), H2 adoption forecast until 2040
• Market: Zero-emission trucks
• Segment: Medium-duty trucks (MDTs) and heavy-duty trucks (HDTs)
• User Cycle: User cycle refers to the usage years (first life); the study illustrates cycles A and H
• Program Area: Mobility
• Geographic Scope: United States: California, Texas, and the Southwest (Arizona and New Mexico combined)

Growth Drivers

CO2 Emissions Life Cycle in the H2 ICE Truck: Growth Drivers, US, 2024-2037

• Shift Toward Clean Energy Generation: The source of H2 production is an important factor impacting CO2 emissions. The United States depends heavily on NG, and the move toward renewable sources will positively impact CO2 emissions.
• Ease of Long-range Driving and Refueling: With specialized H2 infrastructure, refueling a truck's H2 tank with gaseous H2 takes only a few minutes, significantly shorter than the extended recharge period for BEVs. In many use cases, the present generation of H2 ICE vehicles already has good fuel efficiency, making them economically appealing to fleet operators.
• Minimal Change to the Automotive Ecosystem: Mild modification to the powertrain and aftertreatment system, in addition to minimal change to the existing supply chain, is an added boost to the adoption of H2 ICE technology.
• Comparable Upfront Cost: The upfront cost of acquiring an H2 ICE truck is significantly lower than that of BEV or FCEV options and is more similar to that of conventional ICE vehicles.

Growth Restraints

CO2 Emissions Life Cycle in the H2 ICE Truck: Growth Restraints, US, 2024-2037

• Restraint Cost of H2
• Inadequate Refueling Infrastructure
• Indirect Emissions
• Safety Concerns

Table of Contents

CO2 Emissions Life Cycle in the H2 ICE Truck Industry, United States, 2024-2040

Transformation

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the CO2 Emissions Life Cycle in the H2 ICE Truck Industry

Growth Environment: H2 Ecosystem

• H2 Is the Fuel of the Future
• Life Cycle CO2 Flow of an H2 ICE Truck
• Different Methods of Producing H2
• Comparison of Key Fuel Characteristics
• Comparison of Key Engine Parameters
• H2 ICE Fuel Injection Methods

Ecosystem

• Research Scope
• Powertrain Technology Segmentation

Growth Generator

• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints

CO2 Emission Trail During H2 Production

• Analysis of Major H2 Production Methods
• Key Factors Impacting the Adoption of H2 Production Methods
• Factor 1: Lower CO2 Emissions and Readiness Levels
• Factor 2: Clean H2 Programs and Targets
• Factor 3: States' H2 Production Potential and Plan
• Adoption Forecast of H2 Production in California
• Adoption Forecast of H2 Production in the Southwest
• Adoption Forecast of H2 Production in Texas
• CO2 Emission Trail from H2 Production

CO2 Emission Trail During the Manufacture of an H2 ICE Truck

• Key Components of an H2 ICE Truck
• Vehicle Architecture Comparison: Diesel vs H2 ICE
• Major Components in an H2 ICE Truck by Weight
• CO2 Emission Trail in Manufacturing an H2 ICE Truck

Growth Generator: CO2 Emission Trail During the Operation of an H2 ICE-MDT

• Use Case Characteristics and Forecast Assumptions
• Cycle A and H: H2 Consumption and CO2 Emissions
• Cycle A to H: kg CO2 per Mile

Growth Generator: CO2 Emission Trail During the Operation of an H2 ICE-HDT

• Use Case Characteristics and Forecast Assumptions
• Cycle A: Spark Ignition
• Cycle A: High-pressure Direct Injection
• Cycle H: Spark Ignition
• Cycle H: High-pressure Direct Injection
• Cycle A to H: kg CO2 per Mile

CO2 Emission Trail Comparison Between ICE Vehicles, BEVs, and H2 ICE Vehicles

• MDT: ICE, BEV, FCEV, and H2 ICE Comparison Cycle A and H
• HDT: ICE, BEV, FCEV, and H2 ICE Comparison Cycle A and H

Key Takeaways

• Top 3 Takeaways

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: CO2 Emissions Tracking
• Growth Opportunity 2: Alternative Low-emission Technology
• Growth Opportunity 3: Hydrogen Infrastructure Expansion

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer