서유럽 소비자용 eSIM 시장의 성장 기회(2024-2026년)

eSIM Devices and Digital Experiences Propel Transformational Growth Fueled by Multi-SIM Capable Devices, Cross-Border Travelers, and Telco's Promoting Digital-First Experiences

The consumer eSIM market in Western Europe is growing rapidly, though mass adoption remains several years away. Smartphones are the primary driver of eSIM adoption by volume. While most smartphones now support eSIM and nearly all major operators offer eSIM services, a large gap remains between device capability and active eSIM plan usage.

Frost & Sullivan expects eSIM penetration in Western Europe to accelerate once eSIM-only iPhones become widely available.

This study analyzes the market size of the consumer eSIM segment in Western Europe, providing a forecast of cumulative human mobile subscriptions (active connections) from 2024 to 2026, with 2024 as the base year. It segments the market by technology type-eSIM and traditional SIM cards.

The report also examines key market drivers and restraints, eSIM technology trends, use cases, and growth opportunities.

Strategic imperatives include the rise of disruptive technologies as more eSIM-capable devices enter the market; the growing popularity of postpaid eSIM plans as innovative business models; and increasing competitive intensity, with traditional telcos coexisting alongside MVNOs targeting eSIM niche markets.

The study concludes by outlining growth opportunities in the European consumer eSIM landscape.

Scope of Analysis

• This study aims to provide a detailed perspective of the embedded SIM (eSIM) consumer market in Western Europe, focusing on the Western Europe consumer eSIM market and its trends.
• It includes market sizing and share of cumulative human mobile eSIM subscriptions across business-to-customer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) segments, excluding machine-to-machine (M2M)/Internet of Things (IoT). In addition, the report provides qualitative insights on the eSIM-enabled device market, including:
• Technology trends related to the eSIM smartphone adoption trends Western Europe
• Market drivers and restraints that affect the Western Europe consumer eSIM market
• Growth opportunities within the eSIM-enabled device market
• The study defines a mobile subscription as a unique subscriber identity module (SIM) or eSIM that operates on a mobile network for voice, SMS, or data. Cumulative human mobile subscriptions refer to the total number of subscribers-identified by their mobile lines-who have used mobile services (B2C or B2B), including those in the Western Europe consumer eSIM market, and made or received at least 1 communication within the past 12 months.

Growth Drivers

• Full Digital Experience for eSIM Activation: Online eSIM activations now surpass those in physical stores. Operators that offer a digital purchase experience tend to report higher eSIM penetration than traditional carriers focused on retail outlets. This trend is especially relevant in the Western Europe consumer eSIM market.
• Increasing Dual-SIM Options and Apple's Shift to eSIM-Only Devices: Dual SIM (physical + eSIM) smartphones continue to grow in popularity, especially among digital nomads, professionals, and cost-conscious users. Apple's expected launch of eSIM-only devices in Europe may accelerate adoption in the Western Europe consumer eSIM market, but strong competition from brands like Samsung and Xiaomi may lead users to prefer dual SIM options.
• Carrier-Led Push and Customer Education Efforts: European carriers are actively promoting eSIM plans and benefits, making them more attractive in the eSIM-enabled device market. Key offers include travel-specific packages, exclusive discounts, instant QR code activation, and multi-country coverage.
• Improved Security: eSIMs offer built-in security advantages. Their tamper-resistant hardware makes cloning difficult, and carriers can remotely disable stolen eSIM profiles. Encryption protects user identity and credentials, a significant benefit for the Western Europe consumer eSIM market.
• Multi-SIM Capability: Devices can store and manage multiple profiles, enabling users to maintain separate lines for work, personal use, or travel. Many use a traditional SIM for local plans and an eSIM when traveling, contributing to eSIM smartphone adoption trends Western Europe.
• Convenience and Flexibility for International Travelers: MNOs (Vodafone, Orange, Telefonica, Swisscom, Telenor) and third-party providers (Airolo, Holafly) offer eSIM plans for tourists and short-term travelers. These plans provide mobile data and calling across Europe, avoid roaming charges, and support instant activation via QR codes.

Growth Restraints

• Many Operators Lacking Full Readiness to Support eSIM: Implementing eSIM requires Telcos to upgrade IT systems, processes, and infrastructure. They must invest in platform upgrades that support eSIM management systems (e.g., Entitlement Servers) and enable digital onboarding through QR codes, ID verification, and instant provisioning, hindering the Western Europe consumer eSIM market.
• Resistance to Adopt Consumer eSIM by Traditional Telcos: Traditional MNOs hesitate to incentivize eSIM migration, fearing increased customer freedom to switch operators, which may raise churn. In contrast, MVNOs use eSIM to attract users with streamlined digital experiences targeted at the eSIM-enabled device market.
• Awareness and Understanding: Limited consumer understanding of eSIM hinders adoption in the Western Europe consumer eSIM market. Carriers and manufacturers must clearly communicate eSIM's benefits and simplify the onboarding process.
• Resistance to eSIM Adoption Due to Behavioral Inertia: Consumers remain attached to physical SIM cards due to their familiarity and perceived ease of use, leading to resistance toward new technologies, including eSIM in the Western Europe consumer eSIM market. Providers can address this by clearly communicating eSIM's benefits and ensuring a seamless transition.
• Device Compatibility: Device compatibility remains a challenge. While newer devices support eSIM, older models do not. As eSIM-capable and eSIM-only devices become more common, this gap will shrink in the eSIM-enabled device market.
• Security Concerns: Despite its advantages, some users still question eSIM security, citing concerns over potential remote attacks and a perceived lack of visibility and control over the cards. Providers must address these concerns and educate consumers on eSIM's built-in security features like authentication and encryption, especially in the context of the Western Europe consumer eSIM market.

Disruptive Technologies

Why

The number of eSIM-capable consumer devices-including smartphones, wearables, tablets, and laptops-is rising across Europe. According to GSMA, over 271 eSIM consumer device models launched in 2024, with smartphones accounting for the largest share in the eSIM-enabled device market.

Frost Perspective

Apple's launch of eSIM-only smartphones will likely accelerate market growth in the Western Europe consumer eSIM market. Within the next 2-3 years, eSIM-only smartphones will become commercially available in Europe, prompting more consumers to adopt eSIM data services and driving rapid market expansion.

Innovative Business Models

Why

Postpaid eSIM plans are gaining traction in Europe, with major telcos promoting bundled offerings targeted at the Western Europe consumer eSIM market. At the same time, some telcos are targeting digital-native users-such as students, tourists, and remote workers-with prepaid or no-contract eSIM plans.

Frost Perspective

Over the next 5 years, both prepaid and postpaid plans will coexist to meet diverse customer needs in the eSIM-enabled device market. Tourism-driven countries will likely focus on prepaid or flexible plans, while countries with larger resident or business populations will emphasize postpaid services, aligning with eSIM smartphone adoption trends Western Europe.

Competitive Intensity

Why

Traditional telcos like Deutsche Telekom, Orange, and Vodafone currently lead the European eSIM market. However, MVNOs are emerging as strong challengers by offering flexible, affordable, and innovative eSIM services, contributing to growth in the Western Europe consumer eSIM market.

Frost Perspective

Over the next 2-5 years, telcos will likely launch secondary brands operating as MVNOs to serve niche segments with competitive eSIM offerings. As competition intensifies, market players will need to differentiate through personalized services, pricing strategies, and targeted use cases in the eSIM-enabled device market.

Segmentation

Human SIM Card

Traditional SIM Card

• A mobile connection using a physical SIM card stores the user's subscription information and mobile number.
• An active line means the SIM is registered and operational on the network, enabling voice, text, and data services.
• Individuals and businesses use these lines for personal or professional communication.
• This excludes M2M connections.

eSIM

• In this segment, a mobile connection uses an eSIM instead of a physical SIM card, pivotal in the Western Europe consumer eSIM market.
• Users can download and manage multiple operator profiles on their devices, common in eSIM smartphone adoption trends Western Europe.
• An active line refers to the eSIM profile that is downloaded, activated, and used on a network for voice, text, and data services.
• Individuals and businesses use these lines for personal or professional communication.
• This excludes M2M connections.

Table of Contents

Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis
• Definitions
• Segmentation
• eSIM Consumer Segment Overview
• eSIM Technology Trends
• eSIM Technology Trends-Consumer Segment
• eSIM Potential Use Cases-Consumer Segment
• Apple's eSIM-Only Strategy in 2025: Opportunities and Concerns
• Telcos Offering eSIM Data Plans by Country for Apple's Smartphones

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Consumer eSIM Industry

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Growth Metrics
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Cumulative Mobile Subscriptions by Type of SIM Card
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Promoting eSIM with Digital-First Initiatives and During Customer Onboarding
• Growth Opportunity 2: Collaboration with OEMs to Ensure eSIM Certification, Device Compatibility, and Multi-Device Functionality
• Growth Opportunity 3: Multi-Channel Educational Campaigns to Raise Consumer Awareness and Increase eSIM Adoption

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer