재생 디젤 시장 기회, 성장요인, 업계 동향 분석 및 예측(2026-2035년)

The Global Renewable Diesel Market was valued at USD 25.8 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 8.7% to reach USD 57.9 billion by 2035.

Transportation remains the dominant consumption segment, while aviation and power generation are emerging as expanding end-use areas with strong growth potential. Regulatory frameworks in key regions are improving investment certainty by supporting long-term fuel demand visibility, which is encouraging both new plant development and refinery conversion projects. Renewable diesel is gaining strong structural advantages in decarbonization strategies because it can directly replace conventional diesel in existing engines without blending restrictions. This compatibility with current fueling infrastructure makes it a highly scalable solution compared to other biofuels. Investment activity is increasingly concentrated in large-scale biorefineries and integrated refinery transformation projects. At the same time, corporate decarbonization commitments from logistics, aviation, and industrial sectors are strengthening contracted demand. However, feedstock availability remains constrained as demand for waste-based inputs such as used cooking oil and animal fats continues to exceed sustainable supply levels.

The vegetable oil segment accounted for 50.9% share, representing USD 13.1 billion in 2025, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% through 2035. It remains the most established feedstock category, though its growth rate is comparatively lower than alternative sources. Demand patterns are influenced by long-standing sourcing structures across major producing and consuming regions, where different oil types dominate regional supply chains based on agricultural availability and industrial processing capacity.

The transportation segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.7% by 2035. Its dominance is driven by the ability of renewable diesel to function as a direct substitute for petroleum diesel without requiring modifications to existing engines or fueling systems. This compatibility significantly reduces infrastructure transition costs and supports large-scale adoption across freight, logistics, and commercial vehicle operations.

North America Renewable Diesel Market held a 47.9% share in 2025, valued at USD 12.4 billion, and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% through 2035. The United States serves as the central growth hub, supported by extensive production capacity additions and large-scale refinery conversions that have significantly increased domestic supply availability. Expanding investment in low-carbon fuel infrastructure and strong policy support continue to reinforce regional leadership in renewable diesel production and consumption.

Major companies operating in the global renewable diesel market include Neste, Chevron, Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Phillips 66, Repsol, Eni, Cargill, World Energy, Diamond Green Diesel, Gevo, LanzaJet, HollyFrontier, Preem AB, Imperial Oil, Petrobras, and Carolina Renewable Products. Companies operating in the renewable diesel market are focusing on scaling production capacity, securing long-term feedstock supply agreements, and expanding refinery conversion projects to strengthen their competitive positioning. A key strategic priority is vertical integration across the value chain, enabling better control over feedstock sourcing, refining processes, and distribution networks. Firms are increasingly investing in advanced hydrotreatment technologies to improve fuel yield efficiency and reduce production costs. Strategic partnerships with airlines, logistics operators, and industrial end users are helping secure long-term offtake agreements and stabilize revenue streams. Companies are also expanding geographically into high-demand regions with supportive policy environments.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Methodology & Scope

• 1.1 Research design
• 1.2 Quality commitment
  • 1.2.1 GMI AI policy & data integrity commitment
    • 1.2.1.1 Source consistency protocol
• 1.3 Research Trail & Confidence Scoring
  • 1.3.1 Research Trail Components
  • 1.3.2 Scoring Components
• 1.4 Data Collection
  • 1.4.1 Partial list of primary sources
• 1.5 Data mining sources
  • 1.5.1 Paid sources
    • 1.5.1.1 Sources, by region
• 1.6 Base estimates and calculations
  • 1.6.1 Base year calculation for any one approach
• 1.7 Forecast model
• 1.8 Research transparency addendum
  • 1.8.1 Source attribution framework
  • 1.8.2 Quality assurance metrics
  • 1.8.3 Our commitment to trust
• 1.9 Market definitions

Chapter 2 Executive Summary

• 2.1 Industry synopsis, 2022 - 2035
• 2.2 Business trends
• 2.3 Feedstock trends
• 2.4 Application trends
• 2.5 Capacity trends
• 2.6 Regional trends

Chapter 3 Industry Insights

• 3.1 Industry ecosystem
  • 3.1.1 Raw material availability & sourcing analysis
  • 3.1.2 Manufacturing capacity assessment
  • 3.1.3 Supply chain resilience & risk factors
  • 3.1.4 Distribution network analysis
• 3.2 Regulatory landscape
  • 3.2.1 North America
  • 3.2.2 Europe
  • 3.2.3 Asia Pacific
  • 3.2.4 Middle East & Africa
  • 3.2.5 Latin America
• 3.3 Industry impact forces
  • 3.3.1 Growth drivers
  • 3.3.2 Industry pitfalls & challenges
• 3.4 Growth potential analysis
• 3.5 Porter's analysis
  • 3.5.1 Bargaining power of suppliers
  • 3.5.2 Bargaining power of buyers
  • 3.5.3 Threat of new entrants
  • 3.5.4 Threat of substitutes
• 3.6 PESTEL analysis
  • 3.6.1 Political factors
  • 3.6.2 Economic factors
  • 3.6.3 Social factors
  • 3.6.4 Technological factors
  • 3.6.5 Legal factors
  • 3.6.6 Environmental factors
• 3.7 Cost structure analysis of renewable diesel
• 3.8 Price trend analysis (Driven by Primary Research)
  • 3.8.1 By feedstock USD/Ton (Driven by Primary Research)
  • 3.8.2 Pricing strategy by player type (Premium / Value / Cost-plus) (Driven by Primary Research)
• 3.9 Trade data analysis (Driven by Primary Research)
  • 3.9.1 Import/export value trends (Driven by Primary Research)
  • 3.9.2 Key trade corridors & tariff impact (Driven by Primary Research)
• 3.10 Production capacity & utilization (Driven by Primary Research)
  • 3.10.1 Production capacity by country (Driven by Primary Research)
  • 3.10.2 Utilization rates and expansion pipeline (Driven by Primary Research)
• 3.11 Impact of AI & generative AI on the market
  • 3.11.1 Predictive maintenance & fault detection
  • 3.11.2 Grid optimization & load forecasting
  • 3.11.3 Digital twin simulation & testing
  • 3.11.4 Risks, limitations & regulatory considerations
• 3.12 Emerging opportunities & trends
  • 3.12.1 Digitalization & IoT integration
  • 3.12.2 Emerging market penetration
• 3.13 Overall investment scenario and future outlook

Chapter 4 Competitive landscape, 2026

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Company market share analysis, by region, 2025
  • 4.2.1 North America
  • 4.2.2 Europe
  • 4.2.3 Asia Pacific
  • 4.2.4 Middle East & Africa
  • 4.2.5 Latin America
• 4.3 Competitive analysis of major market players
• 4.4 Competitive positioning matrix
• 4.5 Key developments
  • 4.5.1 Mergers & acquisitions
  • 4.5.2 Partnerships & collaborations
  • 4.5.3 New product launches
  • 4.5.4 Expansion plans & funding
• 4.6 Company tier benchmarking
  • 4.6.1 Tier classification criteria & qualifying thresholds
  • 4.6.2 Tier positioning matrix by revenue, geography & innovation

Chapter 5 Market Size and Forecast, By Feedstock, 2022 - 2035 (USD Billion & MT)

• 5.1 Key trends
• 5.2 Animal fat
• 5.3 Vegetable oil
• 5.4 Used cooking oil
• 5.5 Others

Chapter 6 Market Size and Forecast, By Application, 2022 - 2035 (USD Billion & MT)

• 6.1 Key trends
• 6.2 Transportation
• 6.3 Power generation
• 6.4 Aviation
• 6.5 Others

Chapter 7 Market Size and Forecast, By Capacity, 2022 - 2035 (USD Billion & MT)

• 7.1 Key trends
• 7.2 Small scale (<150k tons)
• 7.3 Medium scale (150k-900k tons)
• 7.4 Large scale (>900k tons)

Chapter 8 Market Size and Forecast, By Region, 2022 - 2035 (USD Billion & MT)

• 8.1 Key trends
• 8.2 North America
  • 8.2.1 U.S.
  • 8.2.2 Canada
• 8.3 Europe
  • 8.3.1 Germany
  • 8.3.2 France
  • 8.3.3 Spain
  • 8.3.4 UK
  • 8.3.5 Italy
• 8.4 Asia Pacific
  • 8.4.1 China
  • 8.4.2 India
  • 8.4.3 Indonesia
  • 8.4.4 Australia
  • 8.4.5 Japan
  • 8.4.6 Singapore
• 8.5 Middle East & Africa
  • 8.5.1 Saudi Arabia
  • 8.5.2 South Africa
• 8.6 Latin America
  • 8.6.1 Brazil
  • 8.6.2 Argentina

Chapter 9 Company Profiles

• 9.1 BP
• 9.2 Cargill
• 9.3 Carolina Renewable Products
• 9.4 Chevron
• 9.5 Diamond Green Diesel
• 9.6 Eni
• 9.7 Gevo
• 9.8 HollyFrontier
• 9.9 Imperial Oil
• 9.10 LanzaJet
• 9.11 Marathon Petroleum
• 9.12 Neste
• 9.13 Petrobras
• 9.14 Phillips 66
• 9.15 Preem AB
• 9.16 Repsol
• 9.17 Shell
• 9.18 TotalEnergies
• 9.19 Valero
• 9.20 World Energy