세계의 하드 디스크 드라이브 예측(2025-2029년)

This IDC study presents an update to Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Forecast Update, 2024-2028 (IDC #US52746924, December 2024). It integrates IDC's current IT hardware and consumer electronics products forecasts through 2029 as well as updated HDD and SSD technology transition assumptions. This forecast also reflects the updated HDD and SSD attach rate assumptions in systems, particularly where the mass storage device is fungible in the system or device.Underpinning this forecast for the worldwide HDD market are IDC's assumptions regarding HDD technology transitions that will affect the pace of HDD areal density growth (see Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Component Forecast, 2024-2028, IDC #US52376924, June 2024), HDD product transitions, and HDD price-per-gigabyte declines for each HDD product segment."Demand remains strong through the end of 2025, with some decelerating growth possible in 2026 after many quarters of strong year-over-year growth," according to Ed Burns, research director, Hard Disk Drive and Storage Technologies at IDC. "The HDD market in 2024 was historically strong from an exabyte growth perspective driven by strong increases in demand from the hyperscalers and OEM segment. The long-term demand drivers, especially the long-term growth of data and the increasing value of data, are expected to drive increasing demand for storage through the end of the forecast period; however, this growth is likely to be limited by more conservative capital investment strategies by the HDD suppliers in the early years of this long-term forecast, which will translate into limitations on manufacturing capacity in the outer years."

IDC Market Forecast Figure

Executive Summary

Advice for Technology Suppliers

Market Forecast

• Enterprise HDD Market Segment
  • OEM Server
  • OEM Storage
  • ODM Direct/Non-OEM
• Client HDD Market Segment
  • Portable PCs
  • Desktop PCs
  • Personal and Entry-Level Storage
• Video Surveillance and Machine Vision Market Segment
• Consumer Electronics, Industrial, and Commercial HDD Market Segment

Market Context

• Drivers and Inhibitors
  • Drivers
    • Volume of Data Generated and Stored in Datacenters Continues to Grow over the Long Term
    • GenAI Is Expected to Support Incremental Growth in Storage for Datacenter Environments
    • Expanding Use of Video Surveillance and Video Analytics
  • Inhibitors
    • New Technology Innovations
    • Generative Artificial Intelligence
• Significant Market Developments
• Changes from Prior Forecast

Market Definition

Methodology

Related Research