자동차 산업의 미래 : OEM 업체 현황, 커넥티드카, 자율주행 기술, 전기차, 배터리 기술 혁신, 파워트레인, 공유 모빌리티 - 전망(-2030년)

The automotive industry, encompassing PV, LCV, and MHCV, size is projected to grow from 88 million units in 2024 and is projected to hit 104 million units by 2030, at a CAGR of 2.4%. The automotive market is expected to experience growth driven by various factors. The automotive industry is currently under constant pressure to adapt to new changes due to technological advancements and end-user preferences. Adoption of electric vehicles is the key factor that has witnessed a rapid change in the automotive industry. In line with the EV sector, development and manufacturing of long-range batteries along with installation of fast and ultra-fast charging points for customers is the foremost agenda of the OEMs and EV solution providing companies.

Further, the introduction of autonomous cars with enhanced safety features and higher level of automation is shifting the trends in the automotive market. Moreover, OEMs are focused on reducing the production cost of the vehicle by using gigacasting technology and smart manufacturing by adopting automation and robotics while designing and manufacturing the components.

Furthermore, 5G connected cars to enhance driving experience, manage cars fleet, smart cities and cloud computing is catching on rapidly. It is estimated that around one-fifth of the connected cars will be integrated with 5G connectivity by the end of 2024. This technology is expected to develop quickly can penetrate the market at a high rate by 2030.

Shared mobility encompasses a range of transportation services and resources that are utilized by multiple users, rather than owned individually. This concept includes car-sharing, bike-sharing, ride-hailing, and public transit. By promoting shared access over individual ownership, shared mobility seeks to reduce transportation costs, minimize environmental impact, and enhance urban mobility and accessibility. It offers a sustainable solution to the growing challenges of urbanization, such as traffic congestion and pollution, by optimizing the use of vehicles and infrastructure. Ultimately, shared mobility aims to create more efficient, equitable, and environmentally friendly transportation systems in cities worldwide.

"Autonomous vehicles are anticipated to witness significant growth."

Autonomous vehicles are projected to grow significantly by 2030 due to the rising demand for safety, comfort, and driving convenience features. The launch of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles is another factor contributing to the market's expansion. Numerous OEMs are introducing Level 2, Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous vehicles, including Nissan, Honda, Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. For Instance, in July 2023, BMW announced to launch a 7 Series, Level 3 autonomous driving car by early 2024. Similarly, in February 2022, Benteler EV Systems, Beep and Mobileye announced a collaboration to develop a fully electric and autonomous (SAE Level 4) vehicle that can be used for commuters on public and private roads by early 2024.

"Asia Pacific holds the largest market share in the forecast period"

Asia Pacific has emerged as a promising market for the global automobile industry. The principal driver of this trend is the Chinese market, which has grown to become the world's largest producer and buyer of automobiles. India, Japan, and South Korea are also important country-level markets in the region. While India is gradually becoming a major contributor in the automotive sector, Japan and South Korea are already well-established. According to OICA, China and India produce over 30 million vehicles each year. Despite the worldwide market slowdown, the Asia region has seen growth in automobile production in 2022 and 2023. Continuing this trend, the Asia region will dominate the market in the forecast period.

Further, China is the most dominant nation in automotive industry with respect to supplying raw materials, manufacturing as well as its sales. China has the most powerful supply chain of EV batteries. Over 50% of the EV batteries are manufactured in China. Moreover, around 75% of the components of EV batteries are manufactured in China. These Chinese manufacturers are looking to expand their services and acquire additional market share around the world. For instance, in September 2023, a leading Chinese EV battery manufacturer, Gotion, has announced to invest $2 billion to setup EV lithium battery plant in Illinois, US. In addition, western automakers are adopting strategies in collaboration with Chinese players to manufacture batteries. For instance, in May 2023, Ford announced a collaboration with CATL to set up a EV battery plant in Michigan, US by investing $3.5 billion, which will be operational by 2026.

Furthermore, the market growth in Asia Pacific can be attributed to the high vehicle production and increased use of advanced electronics in Japan, South Korea, and China. The governments of these countries have recognized the growth potential of the automotive sector and have consequently undertaken various initiatives to encourage major OEMs to enter their domestic markets. Several global automobile manufacturers, such as Volkswagen (Germany), Mercedes Benz (Germany), and General Motors (US), have shifted their production plants to emerging economies in the region.

Research Coverage:

The market analysis encompasses the Future of Automotive Industry, focusing on the sales volume of both passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles. Additionally, it examines the developments that occurred in the automotive industry till 2030. The report delves into the trends propelling the automotive sector, analyzing factors that influence the industry till 2030. The study encompasses a broad range, including Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles and Electric Vehicles (EVs), autonomous vehicles, 5G connectivity in cars, smart manufacturing, shared mobility, online sales of vehicles, powertrains, manufacturing platforms and others automotive related future technologies. Geographically, the report covers North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Rest of the World.

Report Scope

The report will help the market leaders/new entrants in this market with information on the technologies that are predected to drive the automotive industry in future. This report will help stakeholders understand the competitive landscape and gain more insights to position their businesses better and to plan suitable go-to-market strategies. The report also helps stakeholders understand the pulse of the market and provides them with information on key market drivers, restraints, challenges, and opportunities.

The report provides insights on the following pointers:

• Analysis of key Trends in 2023 till 2030 (Electrification, Rise of 5G, Connected Cars, Smart Manufacturing etc).
• Product Development/Innovation: Detailed insights on upcoming technologies, research & development activities, and new product & service launches in the automotive market
• Market Development: Comprehensive information about lucrative markets - the report analyses the automotive market across varied regions
• Market Diversification: Exhaustive information about diversification of supply chains, untapped geographies, recent developments, and investments in the automotive market
• Competitive Assessment: Assessment of market shares, growth strategies and service offerings of leading players like across passenger and commercial vehicle segments which are then dirther divided into ICE and electric among others in the automotive market strategies. The report also helps stakeholders understand the pulse of the autonomous vehicle market and provides them information on key market drivers, challenges, and opportunities.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY

• 2.1 STUDY OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY
• 2.2 STUDY SCOPE

3. OVERARCHING TRENDS

• 3.1 FUTURE OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY: OVERARCHING TRENDS
• 3.2 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SALES (PV + LCV + MHCV) AND GDP GROWTH: 1980 TO 2030
• 3.3 AUTOMOTIVE VEHICLE PARC AND GROWTH IN AVERAGE AGE OF VEHICLES
• 3.4 GROWING MIDDLE CLASS AND GEN Z POPULATION TO DRIVE FUTURE SALES
• 3.5 CONNECTED, AUTONOMOUS, SHARED AND ELECTRIC (CASE): GROWTH IN PENETRATION
• 3.6 BABY BUST ECONOMIES: EMERGING ECONOMIES TAKING OVER ADVANCED ECONOMIES
• 3.7 AUTOMOTIVE SALES: NEXT WAVE OF GROWTH FROM EMERGING ECONOMIES
• 3.8 TOP 20 AUTOMOTIVE OEM GROUPS
• 3.9 CHANGES IN AUTOMOTIVE PLATFORMS

4. FUTURE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND BATTERY TECHNOLOGY

• 4.1 SUMMARY
• 4.2 ELECTRIC VEHICLES: BEV LIGHT VEHICLE SALES TIPPING POINT
• 4.3 PHASING OUT OF ICE VEHICLES
• 4.4 ELECTRIFICATION WILL CHANGE AUTOMAKERS AND THE VALUE CHAIN
• 4.5 ELECTRIFICATION TO CHANGE THE MANUFACTURING PROCESSES
• 4.6 SHIFT IN 'PLATFORM' DRIVING EV MANUFACTURING SHIFTS
• 4.7 BATTERY CAPACITY ANALYSIS
• 4.8 CHARGING PERFORMANCE
• 4.9 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: BATTERY TECHNOLOGY MATURITY CURVE AND TIMELINES
• 4.10 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: BATTERY THERMAL MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGIES AND SSB
• 4.11 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: EV BATTERY PACKAGING SOLUTIONS
• 4.12 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY PRICES
• 4.13 POWER ELECTRONICS: INDUSTRY SHIFTING TOWARDS SIC + GAN BUT SPECIFIC TO APPLICATION REQUIREMENTS
• 4.14 ELECTRIC MOTORS
• 4.15 EV BATTERY 4R ECOSYSTEM

5. FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES

• 5.1 SUMMARY
• 5.2 FUTURE OF DIGITAL CONNECTED LIVING
• 5.3 CONNECTED LIVING ECOSYSTEM IN CONTEXT OF A CAR
• 5.4 DIGITAL CONNECTED LIVING SERVICES: TAM FOR MOBILITY INDUSTRY
• 5.5 CONNECTED FEATURES IN FUTURE CARS
• 5.1 IN-VEHICLE EXPERIENCE AND TAILOR-MADE DIGITAL EXPERIENCE
• 5.6 SOFTWARE-DEFINED FRAMEWORK
• 5.7 OEM DIGITAL COCKPIT PROGRAM OVERVIEW
• 5.8 HARDWARE/EE ARCHITECTURE EVOLUTION TO SUPPORT SDV
• 5.9 SOFTWARE DEFINED VEHICLES (SDV)
• 5.10 DATA MONETIZATION AVENUES
• 5.11 5G IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY: USE CASES
• 5.12 GENERATIVE AI TO HAVE MULTIFACETED IMPACT ON THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

6. FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

• 6.1 SUMMARY
• 6.2 AUTONOMOUS WORLD
• 6.3 AUTOMATED DRIVING LEVELS
• 6.4 SENSOR FOCUS
• 6.5 TECHNOLOGY STACK FOR PASSENGER CARS
• 6.6 OEM AUTOMATED DRIVING OFFERING BY REGION
• 6.7 OEM FOCUS
• 6.8 AUTONOMOUS DRIVING: FEATURES MAPPING
• 6.9 L4 OVERVIEW
• 6.10 AUTOMATED DRIVING MARKET FORECASTS
• 6.11 AUTONOMOUS DRIVING: KEY TAKEAWAYS

7. FUTURE OF POWERTRAIN

• 7.1 SUMMARY
• 7.2 FUTURE POWERTRAIN MIX
• 7.3 SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY ROADMAP - PORTFOLIO OF SOLUTIONS BASED ON USE CASES AND APPLICATIONS
• 7.4 E-MOBILITY POWERTRAIN DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP - ACCELERATED ADOPTION OF ASSET-LIGHT MODELS
• 7.5 POWERTRAIN PLATFORM OF THE FUTURE - EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT OPTIONS FOR OEMS
• 7.6 OEM 2030 POWERTRAIN STRATEGIES

8. FUTURE OF SHARED MOBILITY AND AUTOMOTIVE CHANNELS

• 8.1 SUMMARY
• 8.2 MULTI-MODAL MOBILITY AND 15-MINUTE CITIES
• 8.3 RISE IN PURPOSE-BUILT VEHICLES AS WELL AS CARGO VEHICLES
• 8.4 DIGITAL PRE-BUYING EXPERIENCE AND AMAZONIFICATION OF CAR SALES

9. ABOUT MARKETSANDMARKETS

10. LEGAL DISCLAIMER