탄약 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the ammunition market size is expected to grow from USD 20.37 billion in 2025 to USD 21.58 billion in 2026 and is forecasted to reach USD 28.87 billion by 2031 at a 6.00% CAGR over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Caliber (Small Caliber, Medium Caliber, Large Caliber, and Others), Product (Bullets and Cartridges, Artillery Shells and Mortars, and More), Guidance (Guided and Unguided), End-User (Military, Law Enforcement, and More), Platform (Land, Naval, and Airborne), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Ammunition Market Trends and Insights

Intensified NATO Stockpile Replenishment Post-Ukraine War

NATO-aligned countries expand artillery and medium-caliber lines in 2026 as industry and government programs convert funding into stable production, evidenced by new European facilities that scale 155mm shells and 40mm telescoped rounds. Germany's UnterluB site opened in September 2025 and is scheduled to scale to artillery shells by 2027, with intermediate volume milestones in 2026, according to the company's statements. Belgium's automated large-caliber machining and banding line is dedicated to 155mm shells, and nearly six months of 2026 output is allocated to Belgian Defence, signaling sovereign prioritization consistent with allied stockpile policies. Procurement data in the United States shows ammunition and munitions rebuild lines funded in the FY2026 account, sustaining replenishment cycles that backfill inventories and support training stocks. The Department of Defense budget materials also identify ammunition procurement and key supply-chain initiatives across the 2026 portfolio, which reinforce volume orders for shells and energetics to ensure readiness. Nordic governments have deepened regional coordination through a multi-country framework on deliveries, services, and surge capacity with a named supplier, aligning national reserve sharing with peak demand in crisis settings.

Increased Defense Spending and Modernization Driving Market Growth

The US FY2026 defense budget totals reflect continued emphasis on munitions arsenals, industrial-base expansion, and repeatable production of selected weapon systems that anchor upstream investment decisions. Congressional materials covering the FY2026 cycle highlight funding for Patriot, THAAD, Tomahawk, JASSM, LRASM, SM-3, and AMRAAM, which provides stable demand visibility for components, energetics, and assembly lines. Platform-centric contracts underscore how vehicle and artillery acquisitions pull associated ammunition demand, as seen in awards to produce additional M109A7 Paladin howitzers and M992A3 ammunition carriers for US Army formations. At the same time, US contracting records show production-scale awards for proximity-fuzed 30mm rounds tailored for counter-UAS missions, validating procurement of medium-caliber ammunition with specialized effects and guidance logic. Allied procurement in the Middle East adds further demand for bomb bodies and penetrators, with formal notifications confirming large-scale munitions packages that feed air-delivered stockpiles. Industrial-expansion announcements in the United States also target domestic production of nitrocellulose and triple-base propellants, which respond to prior bottlenecks in energetic materials and build long-term capacity for modular charge systems.

DoD and MoD Budget Re-Prioritization Toward Unmanned Systems

The US budget materials in 2026 prioritize a diverse set of capabilities, including attritable and low-cost weapons, which compete for funding with legacy ammunition inventories. Public reporting on reconciliation allocations highlights dedicated lines for one-way attack drones and affordable weapon efforts that draw on similar industrial skill sets and supply chains as traditional cartridges and shells. Allied governments are also standing up guided-rocket and missile assembly outside the United States, which diversifies suppliers while allocating resources toward precision weapons that may reduce short-term artillery buys. Across naval and air portfolios, 2026 funding covers multiple precision families that serve maritime strike and air defense missions, which pulls budget into high-technology lines at the expense of some unguided stockpiles. Industry responses include medium-caliber rounds designed for counter-UAS and multipurpose roles, keeping legacy guns relevant in a drone-saturated environment. The net effect restrains some conventional ammunition orders in the near term, although core artillery and small-caliber volumes remain essential for sustained operations and training in the ammunition market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Rising Civilian Concealed-Carry Adoption Driving Ammunition Demand
2. Growing Demand for Modern Artillery Propellant Systems
3. Soaring Nitrocellulose Prices Due to Cotton Supply Shocks

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Small caliber ammunition accounted for 43.04% of the ammunition market in 2025 and is set to grow at a 6.25% CAGR through 2031 as civil, law enforcement, and military channels sustain parallel demand. New US consumers added in 2024 supported training and personal-defense purchases in 2025 and 2026, providing a broad retail base for small-caliber cartridges. On the defense side, polymer-cased .50-caliber programs reduced weight while improving heat resistance, supporting mobility and logistics benefits on expeditionary missions. Medium-caliber rounds progressed through program awards for F-35 users in Europe, including APEX combat and matched training variants, which confirms a robust pipeline in the 25mm class. European demand for 40mm telescoped ammunition increased with naval and land system deployments, which amplified production plans heading into 2026 and beyond. Large-caliber artillery remains a central priority, as US and European programs scale 155mm output and align propellant capacity to meet scheduled deliveries. These multi-caliber dynamics keep the ammunition market anchored in reliable volume segments while adding selective growth from premium medium-caliber rounds that address counter-UAS and base-defense tasks.

Small-caliber leadership is reinforced by the interoperability benefits of NATO standards around 5.56mm and 7.62mm cartridges, which support cross-border pooling and contract flexibility in allied training pipelines. Medium-caliber adoption benefits from integrated sensors and fire-control logic on land and maritime platforms, which improves lethality against drones and low-cost aerial threats. For large-caliber artillery, artillery body machining and propellant chemistry have both received investment attention to strengthen consistent throughput at Western sites in 2026. This mix of retail, training, and operational needs sustains balanced growth across calibers in the ammunition market, even as budgets also fund guided and unmanned systems. Within this segment, the ammunition industry continues to pursue lighter case materials and improved energetics to optimize logistics and reliability at scale.

Bullets and cartridges held 60.81% of the ammunition market size in 2025 and are projected to advance at a 6.13% CAGR, supported by premium programmable options and steady small-caliber consumption. Northern European contracts for 40mm and 57mm programmable munitions demonstrate sustained demand for airburst and proximity-fuzed effects that counter drones, loitering munitions, and helicopters. Artillery shells and mortars drive replenishment workflows in Europe and the United States through FY2026, and contracting data confirms ongoing investment in 155mm projectiles and modular charges. The US Navy's FY2026 budget supports artillery munitions procurement, which aligns with joint service needs to refresh expiring inventories and equip units for training cycles. Aerial bombs and grenades continue to benefit from fuze and guidance add-ons that enhance accuracy, allowing forces to extend the relevance of legacy stockpiles through modular kits. Foreign military sales in 2025 confirmed significant orders for bomb bodies and penetrators, a trend that supports steady demand for air-delivered munitions alongside artillery investment.

Digital interfaces between fuzes, propellants, and fire-control computers are now a more prominent part of product strategies, reflected in command-programmable cartridges designed for multi-mode effects. Western programs also consider submunition replacements where policy restricts cluster use, and public market surveys show interest in advanced 155mm submunitions at scale. OEMs and arsenals continue to expand 155mm load, assemble, and pack operations in the United States to achieve higher monthly throughput that aligns with training and operational needs. Overall, the ammunition market is shaped by replenishment-led demand in shells and mortars alongside growing premium niches in programmable cartridges, which together lift average selling prices without sacrificing volume. Within this segment, the ammunition industry continues to invest in fuze technology, insensitive munitions, and interface standards to create reliable, configurable effects.

Geography Analysis

North America's share of leadership with 47.31% in 2025 reflects the scale and continuity of US procurement, with FY2026 accounts funding artillery munitions, component lines, and rebuild programs that keep factories engaged throughout the year. Procurement records show repeat awards across calibers and product categories, indicating a balanced approach that sustains shells, cartridges, and specialty rounds for joint service use. The combination of vehicle platform orders, ammunition carriers, and ammunition rebuilds further raises production utilization at major OEM sites and at government-owned facilities that run energetics and loading operations. New energetic capacity planned under federal leases aims to reduce reliance on imported nitrocellulose and triple-base propellants, thereby improving resilience against supply disruptions and supporting long-term charge production for 155mm systems. In this context, the ammunition market benefits from predictable procurement, which enables multi-year capital planning and incremental workforce expansions.

Europe is the fastest-growing region, with a 9.48% CAGR, and 2026 marks a period of meaningful capacity ramp with fresh-shell machining units, new banding lines, and factory expansions designed around 155mm volumes. Announced volume milestones for 2026 and targeted run rates for 2027 reinforce a committed industrial policy focused on ammunition sovereignty, propelled by public-private financing and framework contracts. Complementary programs for 40mm telescoped ammunition highlight the role of programmable effects in airbase defense and naval applications, thereby increasing specialized demand beyond artillery. Regional defense cooperation agreements further standardize cross-border logistics and reserve sharing, speeding deliveries and helping meet national readiness targets in 2026. This trajectory expands Europe's contribution to the global ammunition market and diversifies supply sources across allied nations.

Asia-Pacific partners pursue sovereign production and joint industrial ventures for rocket artillery and modular charges, which adds depth to allied supply chains while reflecting local doctrine and training needs. In the Middle East, formal notifications in 2025 confirm large munitions packages for air-delivered ordnance, which support steady supplier utilization and replenishment cycles through 2026. Africa and South America represent smaller demand pools, where export controls and local budgets shape the cadence of deliveries and may channel purchases toward training munitions over premium segments. Overall, North America retains the largest 2025 position, Europe leads growth through 2031, and Asia-Pacific and the Middle East add diversified demand. This pattern underpins a resilient global ammunition market in 2026.

1. BAE Systems plc
2. Rheinmetall AG
3. Elbit Systems Ltd.
4. KNDS N.V.
5. General Dynamics Corporation
6. Nammo AS
7. Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd.
8. Denel SOC Ltd.
9. Northrop Grumman Corporation
10. MESKO S.A.
11. CBC Global Ammunition
12. Yugoimport-SDPR J.P.
13. Saab AB
14. Hanwha Corporation
15. ARSENAL JSCo.
16. ASELSAN A.S.
17. Winchester Ammunition (Olin Corporation)
18. Poongsan Corporation
19. Fiocchi Munizioni S.p.A.
20. FN HERSTAL
21. CZECHOSLOVAK GROUP a.s.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Intensified NATO stockpile replenishment
  • 4.2.2 Increased defense spending and modernization driving market growth
  • 4.2.3 Increased use of programmable air-burst and proximity-fuzed rounds in urban operations
  • 4.2.4 Rising civilian concealed-carry adoption driving ammunition demand
  • 4.2.5 Growing demand for modern artillery propellant systems
  • 4.2.6 Shift to lead-free ammunition driving market growth
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 DoD and MoD budget re-prioritization toward unmanned systems
  • 4.3.2 Soaring nitrocellulose prices due to cotton supply shocks
  • 4.3.3 Heightened ESG scrutiny on heavy-metal discharge at training grounds
  • 4.3.4 Civil export bans impacting US OEM sales to South America
• 4.4 Value Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

• 5.1 By Caliber
  • 5.1.1 Small Caliber
  • 5.1.2 Medium Caliber
  • 5.1.3 Large Caliber
  • 5.1.4 Others
• 5.2 By Product
  • 5.2.1 Bullets and Cartridges
  • 5.2.2 Artillery Shells and Mortars
  • 5.2.3 Aerial Bombs and Grenades
• 5.3 By Guidance
  • 5.3.1 Guided
  • 5.3.2 Unguided
• 5.4 By End-User
  • 5.4.1 Military
  • 5.4.2 Law Enforcement
  • 5.4.3 Civil and Sports Shooting
• 5.5 By Platform
  • 5.5.1 Land
  • 5.5.2 Naval
  • 5.5.3 Airborne
• 5.6 By Geography
  • 5.6.1 North America
    • 5.6.1.1 United States
    • 5.6.1.2 Canada
    • 5.6.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.6.2 Europe
    • 5.6.2.1 United Kingdom
    • 5.6.2.2 France
    • 5.6.2.3 Germany
    • 5.6.2.4 Russia
    • 5.6.2.5 Rest of Europe
  • 5.6.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.6.3.1 China
    • 5.6.3.2 India
    • 5.6.3.3 Japan
    • 5.6.3.4 South Korea
    • 5.6.3.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.6.4 South America
    • 5.6.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.6.4.2 Rest of South America
  • 5.6.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.6.5.1 Middle East
      • 5.6.5.1.1 Saudi Arabia
      • 5.6.5.1.2 United Arab Emirates
      • 5.6.5.1.3 Turkey
      • 5.6.5.1.4 Rest of Middle East
    • 5.6.5.2 Africa
      • 5.6.5.2.1 South Africa
      • 5.6.5.2.2 Rest of Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 BAE Systems plc
  • 6.4.2 Rheinmetall AG
  • 6.4.3 Elbit Systems Ltd.
  • 6.4.4 KNDS N.V.
  • 6.4.5 General Dynamics Corporation
  • 6.4.6 Nammo AS
  • 6.4.7 Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd.
  • 6.4.8 Denel SOC Ltd.
  • 6.4.9 Northrop Grumman Corporation
  • 6.4.10 MESKO S.A.
  • 6.4.11 CBC Global Ammunition
  • 6.4.12 Yugoimport-SDPR J.P.
  • 6.4.13 Saab AB
  • 6.4.14 Hanwha Corporation
  • 6.4.15 ARSENAL JSCo.
  • 6.4.16 ASELSAN A.S.
  • 6.4.17 Winchester Ammunition (Olin Corporation)
  • 6.4.18 Poongsan Corporation
  • 6.4.19 Fiocchi Munizioni S.p.A.
  • 6.4.20 FN HERSTAL
  • 6.4.21 CZECHOSLOVAK GROUP a.s.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

• 7.1 White-space and Unmet-need Assessment