전기 버스 배터리 팩 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the electric bus battery pack market size is expected to increase from USD 4.26 billion in 2025 to USD 4.75 billion in 2026 and reach USD 8.18 billion by 2031, advancing at an 11.50% CAGR over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Type (Mini/Microbus (Below 8 M), Midi (8-10. 5 M), and More), Propulsion Type (Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)), Battery Chemistry (LFP, LMFP, and More), Capacity, Battery Form, Voltage Class, Module Architecture, Component, and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

Global Electric Bus Battery Pack Market Trends and Insights

Zero-Emission-Bus Mandates (United States, EU, China)

California's Innovative Clean Transit rule requires 100% zero-emission transit agency new bus purchases by 2029, while the EU Clean Vehicles Directive sets binding electric-bus procurement quotas that tighten over time. Beijing and other tier-one Chinese cities apply parallel dual-credit incentives that penalize diesel procurement and reward the uptake of battery electric vehicles. Together, these mandates increase tender volumes, shifting agency focus from budgetary optimization to delivery-schedule certainty. Suppliers able to certify packs above 800 V and to integrate with standardized CCS or MCS connectors gain preference as regulators align on interoperability. The policy momentum thus accelerates volume aggregation and steers global designs toward compliance-ready configurations.

Declining USD/kWh for LFP + LMFP Chemistries

In 2025, average pricing for LFP packs declined, while LMFP prices also decreased, narrowing the historical gap with nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) alternatives. As both chemistries are expected to become more cost-competitive in the coming years, transit agencies stand poised to achieve lifetime cost parity with diesel across the majority of duty cycles. LMFP's energy-density uplift over LFP unlocks articulated bus range targets without thermal-runaway risk, which is decisive for operators in hot climates. The combination of lower cost and higher density tilts tenders toward cobalt-free chemistries, softening exposure to volatile upstream metal prices. Manufacturers that secured manganese supply contracts early now leverage cost stability as a bidding advantage.

Upstream Critical-Mineral Supply Volatility

In 2025, lithium carbonate prices experienced significant fluctuations, with cobalt and nickel showing similar volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions. Such spikes complicate fixed-price procurement contracts that public agencies favor. In response, manufacturers are pivoting toward cobalt-free LFP and LMFP chemistries, yet manganese and phosphate logistics still face capacity constraints. Spot-market instability raises working-capital needs for cell makers, occasionally delaying bus deliveries. Long-term mining expansions in Argentina and Australia may ease shortages in the coming years, but near-term hedging costs persist.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Battery-Leasing and As-A-Service Models Scaling in Asia-Pacific
2. Fleet-Telematics-Driven TCO Analytics Adoption
3. High-Voltage (Above 800 V) Safety Certification Bottlenecks

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Standard (12 m) vehicles captured 48.25% of the electric bus battery pack market share in 2025, as they suit diverse route densities and benefit from mature supply chains. However, articulated (18 m) formats post a 13.64% CAGR through 2031, driven by Bus Rapid Transit corridors seeking higher passenger throughput at lower per-seat cost . The electric bus battery pack market for articulated units is forecast to expand significantly by 2031 as cities allocate climate funding toward capacity upgrades.

Demand for larger platforms is driving average pack capacity beyond 200 kWh, prompting manufacturers to integrate liquid cooling and robust battery management to mitigate thermal hotspots. Accessibility regulations favor articulated designs that offer dual doorways and spacious, low-floor areas. As urban planners prioritize curbspace, long vehicles reduce fleet counts, lowering labor and maintenance overhead. Consequently, battery suppliers focusing on modular, higher-voltage solutions stand to capture incremental value in this sub-segment.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) controlled 89.33% of total shipments in 2025, essentially absorbing former plug-in hybrid niches. The electric bus battery pack market tied to BEVs is set to grow significantly by 2031, with a 12.58% CAGR.

PHEVs linger where mountainous routes or limited grid access complicate full electrification, yet battery density and charging build-outs are eroding these barriers rapidly. The simplicity of all-electric drivetrains cuts parts inventory and technician retraining costs, which resonates with resource-constrained agencies. As regulatory language tightens around zero-tailpipe-emissions requirements, PHEV eligibility for subsidies declines, further squeezing market share. Consequently, cell makers increasingly tailor chemistries and form factors exclusively for BEV duty cycles, reinforcing their dominance.

LFP retained a 57.02% share in 2025, given its cost leadership and thermal stability, yet LMFP's 13.97% CAGR positions it as the fastest-rising alternative. The electric bus battery pack market size attributable to LMFP could exceed further by 2031 if current trajectories persist.

LMFP's manganese doping increases energy density while retaining cobalt-free status, making it suitable for articulated buses that need range without flammable solvents. Cold-weather resilience furthers penetration in Northern Europe and Canada. Meanwhile, NMC and NCA chemistries retreat to niche high-power applications amid volatility in metal prices. Suppliers investing in dual-chemistry production lines hedge demand shifts and ensure stable utilization rates.

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific preserved 63.22% of global volume in 2025 due to China's scale economics, India's FAME II incentives, and South Korea's advanced cell manufacturing. Regional governments bundle bus orders with local-content rules, channeling demand to domestic factories and shortening lead times. Integrated supply chains spanning lithium processing in Sichuan to pack assembly in Guangdong compress unit costs, granting regional suppliers a decisive pricing edge. Furthermore, large-city pilot programs in Indonesia and Thailand showcase fast-charge depots co-located with metro hubs, encouraging replication across Southeast Asia.

South America logs the fastest 15.12% CAGR through 2031 as Brazil, Colombia, and Chile earmark climate-finance funds for clean transit. BYD and Yutong establish knock-down kit plants to bypass import tariffs, while local lithium reserves in Argentina attract cathode refiners. Multilateral banks underwrite charging infrastructure, mitigating sovereign risk, and unlocking low-interest equipment loans. As pack costs slide, even mid-sized cities like Medellin initiate full fleet conversions, signaling a second adoption wave beyond capital metros.

Europe and North America exhibit mature adoption curves yet sustain steady replenishment demand as first-generation buses approach mid-life battery swaps. The EU Green Deal funnels cohesion funds into depot upgrades, and the United States federal grants subsidize bus prices for low-income jurisdictions. These regions prioritize advanced features such as vehicle-to-grid capability and collision-safe pack enclosures, raising average selling prices. Nevertheless, domestic content stipulations encourage joint ventures to localize pack manufacturing, reshaping supply footprints.

1. BYD Company Ltd.
2. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL)
3. LG Energy Solution, Ltd.
4. Samsung SDI Co., Ltd.
5. CALB Group Co., Ltd.
6. Gotion High-tech Co., Ltd.
7. Farasis Energy (Ganzhou) Co. Ltd.
8. BMZ Holding GmbH
9. Leclanche SA
10. Toshiba Corporation
11. EVE Energy Co. Ltd.
12. SK On Co. Ltd.
13. A123 Systems LLC
14. Microvast Holdings, Inc.
15. Forsee Power S.A.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Key Industry Trends & Metrics
  • 4.2.1 Electric Vehicle Sales
  • 4.2.2 Electric Vehicle Sales by OEMs
  • 4.2.3 Best-selling EV Models
  • 4.2.4 OEMs with Preferable Battery Chemistry
  • 4.2.5 Battery Pack Price
  • 4.2.6 Battery Material Cost
  • 4.2.7 Battery Chemistry Price Comparison
  • 4.2.8 EV Battery Capacity and Efficiency
  • 4.2.9 Upcoming EV Models
  • 4.2.10 Cell & Pack Capacity vs Utilization
• 4.3 Market Drivers
  • 4.3.1 Zero-Emission-Bus Mandates (United States, EU, China)
  • 4.3.2 Declining USD/kWh for LFP + LMFP Chemistries
  • 4.3.3 Battery-Leasing and As-A-Service Models Scaling in Asia-Pacific
  • 4.3.4 Fleet-Telematics-Driven TCO Analytics Adoption
  • 4.3.5 On-Route Megawatt Charging Pilots (EU and United States)
  • 4.3.6 Solid-State Prototype Milestones Boost Pack Energy Density
• 4.4 Market Restraints
  • 4.4.1 Upstream Critical-Mineral Supply Volatility
  • 4.4.2 High-Voltage (Above 800 V) Safety Certification Bottlenecks
  • 4.4.3 Urban Grid Constraints on Depot MW-Scale Charging Infrastructure
  • 4.4.4 Residual-Value Uncertainty for Second-Life Bus Packs
• 4.5 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.6 Regulatory Framework
  • 4.6.1 Type Approval & Pack Safety Standards
  • 4.6.2 Market Access: Incentives, Local Content & Trade
  • 4.6.3 End-of-Life: EPR, Second-Life & Recycling Mandates
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry
• 4.8 Technological Outlook

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value (USD) and Volume (Units))

• 5.1 By Type
  • 5.1.1 Mini / Microbus (Below 8 m)
  • 5.1.2 Midi (8-10.5 m)
  • 5.1.3 Standard (12 m)
  • 5.1.4 Articulated (18 m)
• 5.2 By Propulsion Type
  • 5.2.1 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
  • 5.2.2 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)
• 5.3 By Battery Chemistry
  • 5.3.1 LFP
  • 5.3.2 LMFP
  • 5.3.3 NMC (111/523/622/712/811)
  • 5.3.4 NCA
  • 5.3.5 LTO
  • 5.3.6 Others
• 5.4 By Capacity
  • 5.4.1 Below 15 kWh
  • 5.4.2 15-40 kWh
  • 5.4.3 40-60 kWh
  • 5.4.4 60-80 kWh
  • 5.4.5 80-100 kWh
  • 5.4.6 100-150 kWh
  • 5.4.7 Above 150 kWh
• 5.5 By Battery Form
  • 5.5.1 Cylindrical
  • 5.5.2 Pouch
  • 5.5.3 Prismatic
• 5.6 By Voltage Class
  • 5.6.1 Below 400 V (48-350 V)
  • 5.6.2 400-600 V
  • 5.6.3 600-800 V
  • 5.6.4 Above 800 V
• 5.7 By Module Architecture
  • 5.7.1 Cell-to-Module (CTM)
  • 5.7.2 Cell-to-Pack (CTP)
  • 5.7.3 Module-to-Pack (MTP)
• 5.8 By Component
  • 5.8.1 Anode
  • 5.8.2 Cathode
  • 5.8.3 Electrolyte
  • 5.8.4 Separator
• 5.9 By Geography
  • 5.9.1 North America
    • 5.9.1.1 United States
    • 5.9.1.2 Canada
    • 5.9.1.3 Rest of North America
  • 5.9.2 South America
    • 5.9.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.9.2.2 Colombia
    • 5.9.2.3 Chile
    • 5.9.2.4 Argentina
    • 5.9.2.5 Rest of South America
  • 5.9.3 Europe
    • 5.9.3.1 Germany
    • 5.9.3.2 France
    • 5.9.3.3 United Kingdom
    • 5.9.3.4 Poland
    • 5.9.3.5 Italy
    • 5.9.3.6 Sweden
    • 5.9.3.7 Hungary
    • 5.9.3.8 Spain
    • 5.9.3.9 Netherlands
    • 5.9.3.10 Russia
    • 5.9.3.11 Rest of Europe
  • 5.9.4 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.9.4.1 China
    • 5.9.4.2 India
    • 5.9.4.3 Japan
    • 5.9.4.4 South Korea
    • 5.9.4.5 Thailand
    • 5.9.4.6 Indonesia
    • 5.9.4.7 Vietnam
    • 5.9.4.8 Australia
    • 5.9.4.9 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.9.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.9.5.1 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.9.5.2 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.9.5.3 Turkey
    • 5.9.5.4 South Africa
    • 5.9.5.5 Egypt
    • 5.9.5.6 Rest of the Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for Key Companies, Products and Services, SWOT Analysis, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 BYD Company Ltd.
  • 6.4.2 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL)
  • 6.4.3 LG Energy Solution, Ltd.
  • 6.4.4 Samsung SDI Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.5 CALB Group Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.6 Gotion High-tech Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.7 Farasis Energy (Ganzhou) Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.8 BMZ Holding GmbH
  • 6.4.9 Leclanche SA
  • 6.4.10 Toshiba Corporation
  • 6.4.11 EVE Energy Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.12 SK On Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.13 A123 Systems LLC
  • 6.4.14 Microvast Holdings, Inc.
  • 6.4.15 Forsee Power S.A.

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

8 Key Strategic Questions for EV Battery Pack CEOs

9 Who Supplies Whom (OEM-Tier Map)

10 Localization & Cost Stack

• 10.1 BoM Split (USD/kWh)
• 10.2 Local vs Imported Content
• 10.3 Tariff/Subsidy Pass-Through

11 Capacity & Utilization Tracker

• 11.1 Cell GWh (Installed/Under-Build)
• 11.2 Utilization & Bottlenecks
• 11.3 New Plant Pipeline

12 Trade Flow & Import Dependence

13 Recycling & Second-Life Ecosystem