대상포진 백신 시장 : 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, shingles vaccine market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 5.99 billion, growing from 2025 value of USD 5.28 billion with 2031 projections showing USD 11.29 billion, growing at 13.53% CAGR over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Product (Shingrix, Zostavax, and SKYZoster), Vaccine Type (Recombinant Subunit and Live-Attenuated), Age Group (>=50 Years and 18-49 Years), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, and South America). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Shingles Vaccine Market Trends and Insights

Inclusion of Shingles Vaccines in National Immunization Schedules

Australia added Shingrix to its National Immunisation Program in November 2023, covering adults from 65 years and immunocompromised individuals from 50, a move that immediately lifted demand across pharmacies and primary-care clinics. In the United Kingdom, the 2023 shift from Zostavax to Shingrix extended eligibility to severely immunosuppressed adults aged 50 and immunocompetent adults from 60. Such public-funding decisions lower patient cost hurdles, guarantee multi-year tender volumes, and strengthen bargaining power for bulk procurement. Equally important, the World Health Organization plans to release updated herpes zoster recommendations in March 2025, a step likely to influence immunization roadmaps in emerging markets.Collectively, these actions convert what had been sporadic, self-paid uptake into an institutionalized public-health service, supporting a predictable revenue base for the Shingles vaccine market.

Rising Incidence in >=50-Year Age Group & Growing Elderly Population

Global life expectancy gains spur a structural rise in the number of adults with waning cell-mediated immunity capable of reactivating latent varicella-zoster virus. The CDC counts around 1 million shingles cases in the United States each year, with 99% of adults >50 already harboring dormant virus.Demand is consequently insulated from macroeconomic cycles and aimed mainly at preventive care budgets. Studies noting potential cardiovascular and dementia risk reductions following vaccination broaden the value proposition and encourage payer support for adult immunization beyond the immediate avoidance of post-herpetic neuralgia.

Limited Public Awareness in Low- & Middle-Income Countries

In China, only 27.1% of surveyed urban residents expressed willingness to vaccinate, citing scant disease knowledge and the USD 446 price tag as deterrents. Similar gaps exist in Latin America, where under-reporting of herpes zoster incidence complicates policymaking. Without sustained public-health messaging and physician training, market penetration remains thin, slowing progress for the Shingles vaccine market in emerging economies.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Superior Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination Over Treatment
2. Government Reimbursement for Recombinant Adjuvanted Vaccines
3. Supply-Chain Complexity for Cold-Chain, Multi-Dose Recombinant Products

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

The Shingles vaccine market size for recombinant Shingrix translating into an 80.56% market share in 2025 and validating its clinical advantage over live-attenuated predecessors. Uptake benefits from proven more than 90% efficacy and eligibility across immunocompromised cohorts. Despite this strong foothold, momentum is building around pipeline mRNA assets. Moderna's mRNA-1468 moved into Phase 3 on the back of robust CD4+ T-cell activity and a tolerability profile that could match or exceed existing benchmarks. Dynavax's Z-1018 combines its proprietary CpG 1018 adjuvant with recombinant glycoprotein E antigen to elicit comparable immunogenicity, with interim data due in 2025. Should either candidate gain approval, competitive forces could chip away at Shingrix's large Shingles vaccine market share, though the incumbent's entrenched reimbursement ties and seven-year real-world performance record form high entry barriers.

Once license holders scale up RNA manufacturing lines originally built for COVID-19, cost per dose could fall, enabling price competition or expanded access in resource-constrained geographies. However, the Shingles vaccine industry still faces the challenge of establishing cold-chain and ancillary-supply capacity for these new formats at parity with current recombinant offerings. For the medium term, therefore, recombinant formulations are expected to retain dominance even as mRNA varieties broaden choice for providers.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Product
  • Shingrix
  • Zostavax
  • SKYZoster
• By Vaccine Type
  • Recombinant Subunit
  • Live-attenuated
• By Age Group
  • >=50 Years
  • 18-49 Years
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • Japan
    • India
    • Australia
    • South Korea
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • Middle East & Africa
    • GCC
    • South Africa
    • Rest of Middle East & Africa
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America

Geography Analysis

North America, holding 42.86% of the Shingles vaccine market share in 2025, benefits from comprehensive insurance networks, mature retail-pharmacy vaccination channels, and early clinical adoption of recombinant technology. Medicare's removal of cost sharing in 2023 caused a near-instant increase in monthly administrations, underscoring the potency of reimbursement levers. Yet absolute growth is moderating as coverage inches toward saturation; GSK's 2024 U.S. Shingrix sales declined 18% in the fourth quarter as the pool of unvaccinated seniors dwindled and retail chains reset inventory priorities. Future upside therefore relies on broadening indications to younger immunocompromised groups and possibly bundling vaccination with chronic-disease management programs.

Asia-Pacific represents the fastest-expanding opportunity with an 18.12% CAGR through 2031, driven by demographic aging and incremental improvements in adult-vaccination budgets. Australia's 2023 public funding decision triggered above-trend uptake within the first six months, validating fiscal commitment as a catalyst. In China, where the incidence pool is massive, uptake remains modest due to high list prices and variable awareness; still, the recent extension of the GSK-Zhifei partnership through 2029 coupled with local competition from Changchun BCHT Biotechnology's domestically produced vaccine is expected to expand access and potentially lower co-pay levels. Japan, South Korea, and Singapore continue to generate supportive real-world data that shape regional policy and encourage reimbursement.

Europe follows a pattern of deliberate but widening adoption. The United Kingdom's 2023 transition to Shingrix, paired with age-threshold adjustments, set a precedent for neighboring countries evaluating similar moves. Sweden's nationwide epidemiological study indicating a 36.5% lifetime risk is pushing policymakers toward a cost-benefit review, though final funding decisions remain pending. Continental progress is also influenced by pan-European procurement mechanisms that seek volume discounts, an approach that could compress margins but enlarge total addressable volume. Overall, regional heterogeneity persists, but the trajectory for the Shingles vaccine market remains firmly upward.

1. GlaxoSmithKline
2. Merck
3. SK bioscience
4. Changchun BCHT Biotech
5. GeneOne Life Science
6. Vaccitech
7. CanSinoBIO
8. Pfizer
9. Curevo Inc.
10. Jiangsu Recbio Technology
11. Moderna
12. BioNTech
13. Novavax
14. Valneva
15. Bavarian Nordic
16. Johnson & Johnson
17. Daiichi Sankyo
18. Bharat Biotech
19. Sinovac
20. Vaxart

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Inclusion of Shingles Vaccines in National Immunisation Schedules
  • 4.2.2 Rising Incidence in >=50-Year Age Group & Growing Elderly Population
  • 4.2.3 Superior Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination Over Treatment
  • 4.2.4 Government Reimbursement for Recombinant Adjuvanted Vaccines
  • 4.2.5 Fast-Tracked Regulatory Pathways for mRNA-Based Shingles Vaccines
  • 4.2.6 Government-Led Immunization Programs Targeting Older Adults
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Limited Public Awareness in Low- & Middle-Income Countries
  • 4.3.2 Supply-Chain Complexity for Cold-Chain, Multi-Dose Recombinant Products
  • 4.3.3 Adjuvant-Related Safety Concerns Driving Vaccine Hesitancy
  • 4.3.4 Global Bulk-Antigen Capacity Constraints for VZV & Ge Antigens
• 4.4 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.5 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.5.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.5.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.5.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.5.4 Threat of Substitute Products
  • 4.5.5 Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value in USD)

• 5.1 By Product
  • 5.1.1 Shingrix
  • 5.1.2 Zostavax
  • 5.1.3 SKYZoster
• 5.2 By Vaccine Type
  • 5.2.1 Recombinant Subunit
  • 5.2.2 Live-attenuated
• 5.3 By Age Group
  • 5.3.1 >=50 Years
  • 5.3.2 18-49 Years
• 5.4 By Geography
  • 5.4.1 North America
    • 5.4.1.1 United States
    • 5.4.1.2 Canada
    • 5.4.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.4.2 Europe
    • 5.4.2.1 Germany
    • 5.4.2.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.4.2.3 France
    • 5.4.2.4 Italy
    • 5.4.2.5 Spain
    • 5.4.2.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.4.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.4.3.1 China
    • 5.4.3.2 Japan
    • 5.4.3.3 India
    • 5.4.3.4 Australia
    • 5.4.3.5 South Korea
    • 5.4.3.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.4.4 Middle East & Africa
    • 5.4.4.1 GCC
    • 5.4.4.2 South Africa
    • 5.4.4.3 Rest of Middle East & Africa
  • 5.4.5 South America
    • 5.4.5.1 Brazil
    • 5.4.5.2 Argentina
    • 5.4.5.3 Rest of South America

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Market Share Analysis
• 6.3 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.3.1 GSK plc
  • 6.3.2 Merck & Co., Inc.
  • 6.3.3 SK bioscience
  • 6.3.4 Changchun BCHT Biotech
  • 6.3.5 GeneOne Life Science
  • 6.3.6 Vaccitech
  • 6.3.7 CanSinoBIO
  • 6.3.8 Pfizer Inc.
  • 6.3.9 Curevo Inc.
  • 6.3.10 Jiangsu Recbio Technology
  • 6.3.11 Moderna
  • 6.3.12 BioNTech
  • 6.3.13 Novavax
  • 6.3.14 Valneva
  • 6.3.15 Bavarian Nordic
  • 6.3.16 Johnson & Johnson
  • 6.3.17 Daiichi Sankyo
  • 6.3.18 Bharat Biotech
  • 6.3.19 Sinovac
  • 6.3.20 Vaxart

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & unmet-need assessment