세계의 중형 및 대형 상용차 변속기 시장 평가 : 차종별, 변속기 유형별, 연료 유형별, 기어 유형별, 지역별, 기회, 예측(2018-2032년)

Medium & heavy commercial vehicles transmission market is projected to witness a CAGR of 3.84% during the forecast period 2025-2032, growing from USD 13.26 billion in 2024 to USD 17.92 billion in 2032. The market is gradually growing due to rising demand for robust and efficient transmission systems in commercial vehicles globally. The expansion of the transportation and logistics sectors, particularly in emerging economies, is a significant driver. Technological advancements in automatic and automated manual transmissions (AMTs), among others, are improving the performance, efficiency in fuel consumption, and comfort of vehicles, all of which are driving the growth of the market. Efforts and initiatives to promote reduced emissions and improved fuel economy will lead to more widespread acceptance of advanced transmission technologies and alternative fuel vehicles. Additionally, the rising trend of electric commercial vehicles is opening new avenues for specialized electric vehicle transmissions.

Growing Demand for Efficient Freight Transport Drives Market

The global market for medium and heavy commercial vehicle transmissions is witnessing strong growth, fueled largely by rising demand for efficient and dependable freight transportation. As international trade expands and e-commerce continues to surge, the need for commercial vehicles capable of hauling heavier loads over long distances while optimizing fuel efficiency is steadily increasing. Maintaining commercially viable operating costs requires effective transmission capabilities in the vehicle that can accommodate varying terrains, loads, and needs. Trucking companies are increasingly investing in vehicles equipped with advanced transmission systems that enhance fuel efficiency and minimize maintenance needs, recognizing that these improvements have a direct impact on their profitability. This trend is particularly pronounced in regions with developing infrastructure and burgeoning industrial activities, such as the Asia-Pacific, where the movement of goods is critical for economic growth. The expansion of supply chains and logistics networks further underscores the need for high-performance transmissions that ensure the timely and efficient delivery of goods and services.

For instance, in August 2025, Eaton Cummins Automated Transmission Technologies achieved a significant milestone by producing its 500,000 Endurant transmission, delivered to long-time customer Werner. A recent ceremony at the Kenworth Truck Plant in Ohio marked the rollout of the next-generation Kenworth T680 equipped with the milestone transmission as it came off the production line. There are multiple variants to the Endurant family now, such as HD, XD and Pro, which have lightweight construction, advanced software, and a driver-friendly experience in on-highway and vocational applications. This milestone highlights the strong partnership between Eaton and Cummins and reflects their shared commitment to delivering reliable, high-performance, and efficient powertrain solutions.

Technological Advancements in Transmission Systems Propel Market Growth

Technological progress is playing a key role in shaping the medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle transmission market. Advancements in automatic and automated manual transmissions (AMTs) are considerably enhancing performance, driver convenience, and fuel economy with additional gears, advanced electronic controls for shifting, and integration with telematics for predictive maintenance. The introduction of lighter, stronger materials for transmission components is also helping to increase durability and reduce vehicle weight. Finally, the emergence of electric commercial vehicles is driving the invention of completely new transmission designs for electric powertrains, including single-speed electric transmissions, and new multi-speed gearboxes specifically designed to increase range and efficiency during operation. These continuous technological enhancements ensure that commercial vehicles can meet increasingly stringent performance, efficiency, and environmental standards, thereby driving market growth.

For instance, in April 2025, at the 46th Vienna Motor Symposium, BorgWarner exhibited its latest innovations, which include the high-voltage SiC power module, called a next-generation double-sided cooled (DSC) 800 V SiC power module, alongside a multi-level traction inverter based on "clean wave" technology. These innovations aim to increase efficiency, improve thermal management, and facilitate the creation of smaller, high-performance inverters for battery-electric and hybrid vehicles. The DSC module's unique design dissipates heat from both sides of the silicon carbide switch, enabling either lower junction temperatures or higher current densities. The new technologies underline BorgWarner's focus on advancing vehicle electrification through more efficient, power-dense, and scalable powertrain solutions.

Trucks Dominate Vehicle Type Segment of the Market

The truck segment leads the medium and heavy commercial vehicle transmission market, as trucks are widely used across nearly all industries, especially for last-mile delivery, logistics, and business operations. Trucks offer significant versatility, ranging from medium-duty models used for urban deliveries to heavy-duty trucks designed for regional distribution. The ongoing expansion of e-commerce, combined with the increasing number of businesses that depend on efficient and agile delivery solutions, is a major driver of rising demand for trucks. As such, truck manufacturers are focused on enhancing the transmission systems in their trucks to provide improved fuel economy, enhanced maneuverability of trucks in urban settings and enhance the overall efficiency of their operation. For manufacturers of transmissions, trucks have become the primary focus of their future.

Asia-Pacific Dominates Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market

The Asia-Pacific region stands as the largest market for medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle transmissions, supported by strong economic growth, rapid industrialization, and large-scale infrastructure projects. Countries like China and India are experiencing rapid growth in logistics and construction, fueling strong demand for commercial vehicles and their transmission systems. A growing manufacturing base and rising income levels are also boosting freight movement and public transportation needs, particularly with the expansion of modern bus fleets. In addition, government efforts to promote cleaner, more efficient vehicles are accelerating the shift toward advanced transmission technologies. With several major automotive production centers and an increasingly competitive industry landscape, Asia-Pacific continues to lead the global market in this segment.

For instance, in May 2025, Schaeffler India inaugurated its fifth manufacturing facility in Shoolagiri, Tamil Nadu, dedicated to producing both conventional and hybrid powertrain components. The initial phase spans 16,500 m2 and is expected to reach full production by Q4 2025. This expansion reflects Schaeffler's commitment to strengthening its manufacturing footprint, increasing localization, and supporting India's evolving mobility needs. The plant is designed with sustainability in mind, incorporating features such as rainwater harvesting, energy-efficient systems, waste heat recovery, and eco-friendly operations. This expansion aligns with the overall growth of the commercial vehicle sector in the Asia-Pacific region.

Impact of Global Economic Shifts on Commercial Vehicle Transmission Market

Global economic shifts can significantly impact the medium & heavy commercial vehicles transmission market. Economic downturns can lead to reduced investment in new commercial vehicles and fleet expansion, thereby decreasing demand for transmission systems. During periods of economic growth and increased industrial activity, demand for freight transport and new commercial vehicles usually rises, giving a boost to the transmission market. At the same time, shifts in trade policies or geopolitical uncertainties can disrupt supply chains, impacting raw material costs and the production of commercial vehicles and their components worldwide. Further, Fluctuations in fuel prices also play a significant role, as higher fuel costs tend to accelerate the adoption of more fuel-efficient transmission technologies. In contrast, stable or lower prices may slow such transitions.

Key Players Landscape and Outlook

The leading player landscape of the medium and heavy commercial vehicles transmission industry is influenced by ongoing innovation, strategic partnerships, and a strong focus on electrification. Major players are investing heavily in research and development to introduce next-generation transmission systems that offer superior efficiency, durability, and integration with advanced vehicle technologies. Leading suppliers are also working with commercial vehicle makers to co-develop solutions for specific applications, including electric and autonomous vehicles. Overall, the outlook remains positive, with growth expected to continue, driven by global demand for efficient commercial transportation and increasing pressure for sustainable mobility. Key challenges include navigating evolving emission regulations and adapting to the rapid development of electric vehicles. Long-term growth will depend on manufacturers' ability to innovate and provide solutions that cater to diverse fuel types and vehicle applications.

For example, in August 2023, TREMEC acquired Electric GT, a company specializing in plug-and-play EV conversion systems, signaling its strategic entry into the electrification and ICE-to-BEV conversion market. The merged entity, known as TREMEC Electric GT, will operate from Electric GT's Huntington Beach headquarters and leverage TREMEC's global resources and powertrain expertise. The combined offering aims to deliver comprehensive conversion solutions, covering batteries, motors, inverters, gearboxes, and control systems, for classic, late-model, and specialty vehicles. This move strengthens TREMEC's position in the rapidly growing electrification space and adds depth to its EV product portfolio.

For instance, in October 2025, Allison Transmission has integrated its 4500 Rugged Duty Series (RDS) fully automatic transmission with the Cummins X15N natural gas engine, now available in Kenworth T880 tractors, with options for Kenworth L770 and Peterbilt 567 and 520 models. This collaboration delivers 500 horsepower and 1,850 lb-ft of torque, enhancing drivability and efficiency. The X15N engine has access to a wider torque curve, granting better low-end torque and drivability that is especially useful for challenging conditions such as hill climbing. Additionally, since the X15N engine is a natural gas engine, it offers lower NOx emissions than a diesel engine. Running on renewable natural gas can even yield a negative carbon footprint, which aligns well with customer aspirations for a comparable fuel source with lesser emissions. Ozinga Renewable Energy Logistics has deployed this powertrain combination in its fleet, demonstrating its operational benefits.

Table of Contents

1. Project Scope and Definitions

2. Research Methodology

3. Impact of U.S. Tariffs

4. Executive Summary

5. Voice of Customers

• 5.1. Respondent Demographics
• 5.2. Brand Awareness
• 5.3. Factors Considered in Purchase Decisions
• 5.4. Unmet Needs

6. Global Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market Outlook, 2018-2032F

• 6.1. Market Size Analysis & Forecast
  • 6.1.1. By Value
• 6.2. Market Share Analysis & Forecast
  • 6.2.1. By Vehicle Type
    • 6.2.1.1. Buses
    • 6.2.1.2. Trucks
    • 6.2.1.3. Others
  • 6.2.2. By Transmission Type
    • 6.2.2.1. Manual Transmission
    • 6.2.2.2. Automatic Transmission
    • 6.2.2.3. Others
  • 6.2.3. By Fuel Type
    • 6.2.3.1. Gasoline
    • 6.2.3.2. Diesel
    • 6.2.3.3. Electric
    • 6.2.3.4. Others
  • 6.2.4. By Gear Type
    • 6.2.4.1. 5-8 Gears
    • 6.2.4.2. 8-10 Gears
    • 6.2.4.3. Above 10 Gears
  • 6.2.5. By Region
    • 6.2.5.1. North America
    • 6.2.5.2. Europe
    • 6.2.5.3. Asia-Pacific
    • 6.2.5.4. South America
    • 6.2.5.5. Middle East and Africa
  • 6.2.6. By Company Market Share Analysis (Top 5 Companies and Others - By Value, 2024)
• 6.3. Market Map Analysis, 2024
  • 6.3.1. By Vehicle Type
  • 6.3.2. By Transmission Type
  • 6.3.3. By Fuel Type
  • 6.3.4. By Gear Type
  • 6.3.5. By Region

7. North America Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market Outlook, 2018-2032F

• 7.1. Market Size Analysis & Forecast
  • 7.1.1. By Value
• 7.2. Market Share Analysis & Forecast
  • 7.2.1. By Vehicle Type
    • 7.2.1.1. Buses
    • 7.2.1.2. Trucks
    • 7.2.1.3. Others
  • 7.2.2. By Transmission Type
    • 7.2.2.1. Manual Transmission
    • 7.2.2.2. Automatic Transmission
    • 7.2.2.3. Others
  • 7.2.3. By Fuel Type
    • 7.2.3.1. Gasoline
    • 7.2.3.2. Diesel
    • 7.2.3.3. Electric
    • 7.2.3.4. Others
  • 7.2.4. By Gear Type
    • 7.2.4.1. 5-8 Gears
    • 7.2.4.2. 8-10 Gears
    • 7.2.4.3. Above 10 Gears
  • 7.2.5. By Country Share
    • 7.2.5.1. United States
    • 7.2.5.2. Canada
    • 7.2.5.3. Mexico
• 7.3. Country Market Assessment
  • 7.3.1. United States Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market Outlook, 2018-2032F*
    • 7.3.1.1. Market Size Analysis & Forecast
      • 7.3.1.1.1. By Value
    • 7.3.1.2. Market Share Analysis & Forecast
      • 7.3.1.2.1. By Vehicle Type
        • 7.3.1.2.1.1. Buses
        • 7.3.1.2.1.2. Trucks
        • 7.3.1.2.1.3. Others
      • 7.3.1.2.2. By Transmission Type
        • 7.3.1.2.2.1. Manual Transmission
        • 7.3.1.2.2.2. Automatic Transmission
        • 7.3.1.2.2.3. Others
      • 7.3.1.2.3. By Fuel Type
        • 7.3.1.2.3.1. Gasoline
        • 7.3.1.2.3.2. Diesel
        • 7.3.1.2.3.3. Electric
        • 7.3.1.2.3.4. Others
      • 7.3.1.2.4. By Gear Type
        • 7.3.1.2.4.1. 5-8 Gears
        • 7.3.1.2.4.2. 8-10 Gears
        • 7.3.1.2.4.3. Above 10 Gears
  • 7.3.2. Canada
  • 7.3.3. Mexico

All segments will be provided for all regions and countries covered

8. Europe Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market Outlook, 2018-2032F

• 8.1. Germany
• 8.2. France
• 8.3. Italy
• 8.4. United Kingdom
• 8.5. Russia
• 8.6. Netherlands
• 8.7. Spain
• 8.8. Turkey
• 8.9. Poland

9. Asia-Pacific Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market Outlook, 2018-2032F

• 9.1. India
• 9.2. China
• 9.3. Japan
• 9.4. Australia
• 9.5. Vietnam
• 9.6. South Korea
• 9.7. Indonesia
• 9.8. Philippines

10. South America Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market Outlook, 2018-2032F

• 10.1. Brazil
• 10.2. Argentina

11. Middle East and Africa Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market Outlook, 2018-2032F

• 11.1. Saudi Arabia
• 11.2. UAE
• 11.3. South Africa

12. Porter's Five Forces Analysis

13. PESTLE Analysis

14. Market Dynamics

• 14.1. Market Drivers
• 14.2. Market Challenges

15. Market Trends and Developments

16. Case Studies

17. Competitive Landscape

• 17.1. Competition Matrix of Top 5 Market Leaders
• 17.2. SWOT Analysis for Top 5 Players
• 17.3. Key Players Landscape for Top 11 Market Players
  • 17.3.1. ZF Friedrichshafen AG
    • 17.3.1.1. Company Details
    • 17.3.1.2. Key Management Personnel
    • 17.3.1.3. Key Products Offered
    • 17.3.1.4. Financials (As Reported)
    • 17.3.1.5. Key Market Focus and Geographical Presence
    • 17.3.1.6. Recent Developments/Collaborations/Partnerships/Mergers and Acquisition
  • 17.3.2. Eaton Cummins Automated Transmission Technologies
  • 17.3.3. BorgWarner Inc.
  • 17.3.4. Dana Incorporated
  • 17.3.5. Bosal Emission Control Systems N.V.
  • 17.3.6. Schaeffler AG.
  • 17.3.7. Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation
  • 17.3.8. AVTEC Limited
  • 17.3.9. Transmisiones y Equipos Mecanicos S.A. de C.V. (TREMEC)
  • 17.3.10. Aisin Corporation
  • 17.3.11. Allison Transmission, Inc

Companies mentioned above DO NOT hold any order as per market share and can be changed as per information available during research work.

18. Strategic Recommendations

19. About Us and Disclaimer