자동 중대형 트럭 시장

For many years, advances in automated driving technology have received significant media attention, particularly in the light-duty vehicle segment. Generally, these technologies enable drivers to remove their hands from the wheel, and, in some cases, their eyes from the road. Recent developments have focused on robotaxis, rideshare vehicles that operate without a driver or sometimes, without a safety monitor in the front seat.

This report evaluates the potential sales and revenues of medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) trucks that are capable of operating without continuous supervision, potentially through their entire routes. Their gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) is greater than 10,000 pounds/4,536 kilograms. The analysis covers both medium-duty trucks, whose GVWR is between 10,000 and 26,000 pounds/4,536 and 11,793 kilograms, and heavy-duty trucks whose GVWR is greater than 26,000 pounds/11,793 kilograms. It also includes on-road and off-road use cases for autonomous technologies.

Guidehouse Research anticipates that global sales of hands-off/eyes-off (i.e., automated) MHD trucks will only mature toward the end of the forecast period, reaching approximately 36,000 units by 2034, with China accounting for nearly one-third of the market due to rapid growth and favorable regulatory conditions.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Market Overview
• 1.2 Scope
• 1.3 Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Drivers
  • 2.2.1 Simplified ODDs
  • 2.2.2 Driver Shortages and Driver Costs
  • 2.2.3 Lower TCO
• 2.3 Barriers
  • 2.3.1 Public Opinion on Automation
  • 2.3.2 Workforce Political Power
  • 2.3.3 Funding Issues

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 Competitive Landscape
• 3.3 Industry Value Chain
  • 3.3.1 M&A Activities

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 Methodology
• 4.2 MHD Truck Sales Forecasts
• 4.3 Automated MHD Truck Sales Forecasts
  • 4.3.1 Automated Heavy-Duty Truck Sales Forecasts
  • 4.3.2 Automated Medium-Duty Truck Sales Forecasts
• 4.4 Automated MHD Truck Revenue Forecasts
  • 4.4.1 Automated Heavy-Duty Truck Revenue Forecasts
  • 4.4.2 Automated Medium-Duty Truck Revenue Forecasts
• 4.5 Automated On-Road MHD Truck Sales Forecasts
• 4.6 Automated Off-Road MHD Truck Sales Forecasts

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 MHDV Autonomy Developers
  • 5.2.2 MHD OEMs
  • 5.2.3 Government Policymakers
  • 5.2.4 Trucking Fleet Operators

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology & Notes