지폐의 라이프 사이클(-2030년)

Key facts:

• The global banknote printing market is expected to increase in value to $17.1 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 5.3% from 2024
• In 2023, there were 54.6 billion US banknotes in circulation, with a combined face value of $2.3 trillion.

Despite the growing dominance of contactless payments and digital wallets, banknotes remain indispensable for economic resilience, financial inclusion, cultural identity, and privacy. Towards 2030, the banknote lifecycle will be greatly influenced by the integration of advanced technology, evolving public needs, and a strong emphasis on security, sustainability, and accessibility.

This report maps out the current lifecycle of a banknote, and the steps involved in the design, production and circulation of banknotes. It includes a detailed analysis of each stage in the cash cycle, and focuses on how changes within the banknote industry and geopolitical factors will influence this lifecycle over the next five years.

Key Questions:

• What forces within the market are driving or hindering banknote use?
• Which stages of lifecycle are affected by technological disruptions or developments?
• How is the use of digital and physical currencies balanced geographically?
• What is the influence of Central Bank Digital Currencies on the lifecycle of banknotes?

This report is essential to:

• Organisations active in the printing and distribution of cash
• Central banks, state printers and mints
• Security print consultants and analysts

Table of Contents

Executive summary

Introduction and methodology

• Report scope
• Report objective
• Geographic coverage
• Methodology
• Definitions and abbreviations

Banknote industry: key drivers and trends

• Overview
• Introduction
• Global usage of cash is declining
• Cash remains resilient and secure
  • Emergence of Central Bank Digital currencies (CBDCs)
• Environmental sustainability and lifecycle optimization
• Security threats and counterfeiting
• Artificial intelligence: unlocking vast potential
  • Phy-gital hybrids AKA "smart" banknotes
• The tariff years
• Strategic acquisitions and industry transformation

Banknote design: concepts to blueprints

• Overview
• Role of design in the lifecycle of banknotes
  • Design and pre-production
  • Production and printing
  • Quality control and inspection
  • Distribution and circulation
  • End-of-lifecyle
• Banknote design: perpetual evolution
• Increased security
• Cultural and social reflection
• Current case study: the new Euro - a five-year popularity contest
  • Public input
• Environmental considerations
• Banknote design in 2030: meeting today's challenges
  • Designing for security
  • Designing for digital coexistence and convergence
• Sustainability
  • Designing for durability
  • End-of-life design and recycling
• Banknote design: learning and knowing your client
• AI and design: complementary roles
  • Generative design and aesthetic innovation
  • Accelerated design process
  • Predictive counterfeit mitigation
  • Behavioral analytics and human-centered design
  • Lifecycle simulation and durability optimization
  • The challenges

Banknote substrates and security feature technologies

• Overview
• Substrates: paper / polymer / hybrids
  • Cotton-based substrates (17th century - current)
  • Introduction of polymer substrates (1980s-2000s)
  • Composite polymer-paper hybrids (2010s-present)
  • Current substrate landscape (2020s)
• Banknote substrates in 2030
  • Expansion and Refinement of polymer substrates
  • Rise of composite substrates
  • Recycled materials, extended lifecycles
  • Substrates designed for embedded digital features
  • Substrate-level security features
  • Real-time traceability and lifecycle monitoring
  • Nanomaterial and smart material integration
• Security features: overt & machine-readable
• Primary security features: overt optical technologies
• Case study: why 1s matters? The perception of 3D effects
  • Perceiving the benefits of 3D Security features
• Machine-readable security features
• Tough to be unique in a niche industry: cross-cutting trends
  • The coin-banknote boundary
  • Integration at the substrate level
• Banknote substrate and security features: challenges to 2030
  • Technological obsolescence assists counterfeiters
  • Machine-readable features and BEMS
  • The durability of security
  • Cost of innovation
  • Integration complexity
  • Public acceptance and usability
• Banknote substrate and security features: the 2030 lifecycle
  • A. Design phase
  • B. Production phase
  • C. Distribution and logistics
  • D. Circulation and usage
  • E. End-of-life management
• Conclusion

Banknote lifecycle to 2030: production

• Overview
• "You cannot buy a banknote": a printwork's creed
  • Banknotes are instruments of trust, not commodities
  • Counterfeiting isn't just a crime - it's a national security threat
  • High security printers must guarantee value transfer
  • Central banks are custodians
  • Printers create "error-free" value
• Global banknote production
  • Current status: 2020-25
  • Future outlook: 2025-30
  • Staying ahead of the counterfeiters
  • Sustainable lifecycle
  • The cash paradox
• Banknote printing to 2030: innovative technologies
• Artificial intelligence: beyond ChatGPT
  • AI-designed banknote security printing patterns
  • Simulation of substrate and ink interactions
  • Intelligent quality control
  • Predictive maintenance and workflow optimization
• The case for digital printing
  • Greater flexibility and customization
  • Streamlined prototyping and development cycles
  • Enhanced security potential
  • Cost and efficiency benefits
  • Challenges in adoption and Integration
• Automation and smart manufacturing
  • Cybersecurity essentials
• Sustainability through technology
  • Eco-friendly substrates
  • Sustainable and secure inks
  • Energy-efficient printing processes
• Strategic transformation through technology and innovation

Banknote lifecycle in 2030: transforming the cash cycle

• Overview
• Cash cycle: the perpetual value flow
  • Step 1: Central Bank issuance to commercial banks
  • Step 2: distribution into the economy
  • Step 3: recirculation and handling
  • Step 4: destruction of unfit notes
  • Step 5: reissue and replacement
• The cash cycle in 2030
• Challenge #1: decreasing cash usage
• Cash usage: (Mis) accurate representations??
  • The CIC/GDP ratio
  • "Transactional cash" data
  • Cash sharing measures
• Hoarding and off-shoring
• Challenge #2: reducing operational costs
  • Cash access and the ATM landscape
  • Growing ATM networks
  • Energy-efficiency
  • Data-driven optimization
    • Increased cash recycling points
  • Banknote recirculation and fitness sorting automation
• Challenge #3: smarter counterfeiting threats
• Scenario : the cash cycle and a counterfeiting crisis
  • Case #1: advanced economies
    • Surge in digital payment adoption
    • Increased government support for digital infrastructure
    • Greater scrutiny of anti-fraud capabilities in digital platforms
  • Case #2: emerging market economies
    • Slower and more fragmented shift to digital payments
    • Economic disruption in the informal sector
    • Limited institutional capacity to respond
    • Opportunity for leapfrogging-if managed well
• Banknote transportation: streamlining movement
• Secure logistics networks
• Centralized vs distributed issuance models
• A banknote's end of life: fueling a new beginning
  • Evolving practices
  • Recycling and reuse - a circular economy?
• The future of the cash cycle: analytics
  • Optimizing currency distribution and inventory management
  • Forecasting demand through AI and machine learning
  • Enhancing ATM and Cash-in-transit efficiency
  • Lifecycle management and banknote durability
  • Policy development and access to cash
  • Integrating physical and digital currency metrics
  • Vendor oversight and ecosystem management
• Conclusion

Banknote lifecycle in 2030: global outlooks

• Overview
• Western Europe
  • Design and substrate
  • Production and manufacturing
  • Circulation and use
  • Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
  • End-of-life and sustainability
• Eurozone
  • Design and substrate
  • Production and manufacturing
  • Circulation and use
  • Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
  • End-of-life and sustainability
• Eastern Europe
  • Design and substrate
  • Printing and production
  • Circulation and public use
  • Sorting and fitness
  • End-of-life and recycling
• North America
  • Design and substrate
  • Production and manufacturing
  • Circulation and use
  • Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
  • End-of-life and sustainability
• South & Central America
  • Design and substrate
  • Production and manufacturing
  • Circulation and use
  • Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
  • End-of-life and sustainability
• Asia-Pacific
  • Design and substrate
  • Production and manufacturing
  • Circulation and use
  • Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
  • End-of-life and sustainability
• Australia
  • Design and substrate
  • Production and manufacturing
  • Circulation and use
  • Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
  • End-of-life and sustainability
• Africa
  • Design and substrate
  • Production and manufacturing
  • Circulation and use
  • Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
  • End-of-life and sustainability

Key Facts and Figures

• IGNIS ExNihilo concept note from Bundesdruckerei, front and back surfaces
• The new Euro, banknote approval process
• Impacts of key trends/drivers on the banknote lifecycle
• Banknotes substrates investigated by key features
• Data sources for cash analytics across the cash cycle