디지털 결제 및 E-Commerce의 부정, 사기, 리스크(2026년) : 세계 시장 개요, 주요 지표 및 전망

Fraud Losses, AI-Driven Scams, and Rising Cyber Risk Reshape Global Digital Payments and E-Commerce Security

Key Highlights

• Global E-Commerce fraud losses are forecast to more than double from over USD 40 billion in 2024 to more than USD 100 billion by 2029, reflecting the growing financial exposure of digital commerce ecosystems as online transactions expand globally.
• Financial institution fraud losses are projected to rise by over 150% from less than USD 25 billion in 2025 to more than USD 55.3 billion by 2030, indicating increasing operational and financial pressure on banks and payment providers as fraud activity becomes more complex and scalable.
• Average individual crypto scam payment values increased by more than 250% from less than USD 800 in 2024 to over USD 2,750 in 2025, highlighting escalating transaction-level fraud severity and the growing financial impact of crypto-related scams.

Digital Commerce Expansion Increases Exposure to Fraud Losses

Fraud losses are rising alongside the expansion of digital commerce and payment transactions. Global E-Commerce fraud losses are expected to more than double by 2029, while fraud losses affecting financial institutions are forecast to increase sharply by 2030 as digital payments scale. Over the next decade, cumulative global card payment fraud losses are estimated to reach over USD 400 billion, reflecting the growing exposure linked to online and card-not-present transactions.

Manipulation-Driven Scams and Identity Abuse Reshape Fraud Activity

Fraud is increasingly shifting from technical compromise toward manipulation-driven schemes in which victims authorize transactions themselves. Social engineering, impersonation tactics, and identity misuse are becoming central drivers of fraud losses across digital commerce and payment ecosystems. Many fraud attempts now originate through social media, messaging platforms, or phone calls before leading to financial transactions.

Artificial Intelligence Expands Both Fraud Risks and Defensive Capabilities

Artificial intelligence is reshaping the fraud landscape by enabling more advanced attacks while also strengthening detection tools. Generative AI can support scalable phishing campaigns, deepfake impersonation, and automated scam operations. At the same time, financial institutions and digital platforms are adopting AI-driven detection systems based on behavioral analytics, machine learning models, and real-time risk scoring.

Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways

2. Management Summary

3. Global Consumer & Executive Risk Perceptions

• Global: Share of Consumers More Concerned About Cyber Risks Than Two Years Ago, in % of Respondents, 2025
• Global: Share of Consumers Who Believe Being Scammed Is Inevitable, in % of Respondents, 2025
• Global: Share of Consumers Who Received a Scam Attempt in the Past 12 Months, in % of Respondents, 2025
• Global: Consumer Exposure to Digital Fraud Attempts, in % of Respondents, May - June 2025
• Global: Perceived Change in Selected Cyber Risk Categories, in % of Respondents, August - October 2025
• Global: Consumer Perceptions of Digital Versus Physical Security, in % of Respondents, 2025
• Global: Consumer Perceptions of Digital Security, AI-Driven Fraud Risks, and Reporting Barriers, March 2026
• Global: Perceived Involvement of AI in Online Fraud Incidents, in % of Resp. Experienced Online Fraud or Scams, June - July 2025
• Global: Self-Reported Belief in Deepfake Identification Ability, in % of Respondents, 2024 - 2025
• Global: CEOs' Top Cybersecurity Concerns Related to GenAI, in % of Respondents, August - October 2025
• Global: Evolution of Top Cybersecurity Concerns Related to GenAI, in % of Resp., 2024 - 2026
• Global: Technologies with the Greatest Anticipated Impact on Cybersecurity in the Next 12 Months, in % of Resp., August - October 2025
• Global: Online Payment Fraud Growth, Consumer Trust Responses, and Merchant Risk Management Implications, March 2026
• Global: Fraud Reimbursement Expectations, Customer Trust Pressures, and Payment Provider Risk Ownership, March 2026
• Global: Financial System Interdep., Supply-Chain Vulnerabilities, and Consumer Trust Pressures, March 2026

4. Global Fraud Scale & Loss Landscape

• Global: Value of E-Commerce Fraud Losses, in USD billions, 2024 & 2029f
• Global: Financial Institution Fraud Loss Forecast, in USD billions, 2025 & 2030f
• Global: Cumulative Card Payment Fraud Losses and Key Risk Drivers, March 2026
• Global: Share of Annual Company Revenue Lost to Fraud, in % of Total Revenue, 2024 - 2025
• Global: Digital Identity Fraud Trends, Consumer Scam Exposure, and Financial Institution Loss Fore., March 2026
• Global: Rate of Suspected Digital Fraud, in % of Total Digital Transactions Evaluated, H1 2022 - H1 2025
• Global: Digital Fraud Attempts, Account Takeover Activity, and Consumer Scam Exposure, March 2026
• Global: AI-Driven Fraud Escalation and Payment Fraud Values Despite Customer Authen., March 2026
• Global: Prevalence and Types of Cyber-Enabled Fraud Experienced in the Past 12 Months, in % of Resp., August - October 2025
• Global: Exposure to Cyber-Enabled Fraud in the Past 12 Months, by Region, in % of Resp., August - October 2025
• Global: Crypto Scam and Fraud Loss Estimates, Historical Revisions, and Structural Underestimation Risk, March 2026
• Global: Average Value of Individual Crypto Scam Payments, in USD, 2024 - 2025
• Global: Individual Crypto Scam Payments and Underlying Drivers of Transaction-Level Loss Escalation, March 2026

5. Global & Europe Types & Attack Vectors

• Global: Primary Causes of Fraud Losses, in % of Business Leaders Rep. Each Fraud Type, May - June 2025
• Global: Suspected Digital Fraud by Consumer Lifecycle Stage, in % of Stage-Level Transaction Attempts, May - June 2025
• Global: Suspected Digital Fraud Rates by Industry, in %, May - June 2025
• Global: Share of Consumers Who Engaged With Scam Attempts by Generation, in % of Respondents, 2025
• Global: AI-Generated Impersonation, Synthetic Media, and Social Engineering in Online Fraud, March 2026
• Global: Credential Abuse Trends, Identity Management Risks, and AI-Driven Commerce Developm., March 2026
• Global: Growth Dynamics, Rising Payment Severity, and Convergence of Impersonation Tactics Across Crypto Scam Types, March 2026
• Global: Shift in Laundering Channels and Off-Ramp Structures for Crypto Scam Proceeds, March 2026
• Global: Multi-Rail Payment Expansion, Vulner. Exploitation Trends, and Ecosystem-Level Cyber Risk, March 2026
• Global: Cybercrime-as-a-Service Expansion and Implications for Payment Fraud Risk Management, March 2026
• Global: Criminal Data Marketplaces, Access Brokerage, and the Rise of Intelligence-Led Risk Management, March 2026
• Global: Money Mule Recruitment, Rapid Funds Movement, and Industrialization of Scam Proceeds, March 2026
• Europe: Authorised vs Unauthorised Payment Fraud Patterns and Reimbursement Implications, March 2026
• Europe: Scam Typologies, Consumer Decision Dynamics, and Dispute Escalation Drivers, March 2026
• Europe: Convergence of Payment Channels and Cross-Channel Fraud Threat Evolution, March 2026
• Europe: Online Marketplaces, Counterfeit Trade, and Converging Criminal Supply Chains, March 2026
• Europe: Organized Fraud Networks, Scam Supply Chains, and Industrialization of Financial Crime, March 2026

6. Global AI as a Fraud Accelerator

• Global: AI-Enabled Phishing, Social Engineering Acceleration, and AI-Driven Fraud Det. in Payments, March 2026
• Global: Performance and Efficiency Comparison of AI-Enabled and Traditional Crypto Scams, March 2026
• Global: Share of AI-Enabled Crypto Scams Concentrated in High-Value / High-Volume Activity, in % of Scams, 2025
• Global: Impact of Service-Based Scam Supply Chains on Fraud Scalability, Transaction Effectiveness, and Operational Intensity, March 2026
• Global: Evolution of Fraud Techniques, Detection Processes, and AI-Enabled Risk Management Practices, March 2026
• Global: Share of Consumers Who Are "Very Confident" in Identifying AI-Generated Threats or Scams, in % of Respondents, 2025
• Global: Adoption of Generative AI in Fraud Prevention by Banks, in % of Respondents, March-April 2025
• Global: Perceived Use of Generative AI in Voice-Cloning Fraud, in % of Respondents, March-April 2025
• Global: Expected Impact of AI-Driven Behavioral Analytics on Fraud Prevention, in % of Resp., March-April 2025
• Global: Agentic Commerce, Automated Payment Journeys, and Emerging Authentication Implications, March 2026

7. Global AI-Powered Fraud Detection & Defense

• Global: Adoption and Primary Use Cases of AI-Enabled Tools for Cybersecurity, in % of Resp., August - October 2025
• Global: Behavioral AI Adoption and Enterprise Deployment Challenges in Fraud Detection Sys., March 2026
• Global: Top Use Cases of AI in Fraud and Financial Crime Prevention by Financial Institutions, in % of Resp., March - April 2025
• Global: Duration of AI Use in Fraud Prevention by Financial Institutions, in % of Resp., March - April 2025
• Global: Adop. of AI for Fraud and Financial Crime Prevention by Financial Institutions, in % of Resp., March - April 2025
• Global: Leading Challenges in AI Deployment for Fraud and Financial Crime Prevention, in % of Resp., March - April 2025
• Global: Reported Impact of AI Adoption on False Positives in Fraud and Financial Crime Prevention, in % of Resp., March - April 2025
• Global: Reported Impact of AI Adoption on Fraud Loss Reduction, in % of Respondents, March - April 2025
• Global: Criminal Use of Generative AI in Fraud and Scam Activities, in % of Respondents, March - April 2025
• Global: Fraud Prevention Technologies, in % of Business Leaders Ranking Each Among the Top Three Most Effective, May - June 2025
• Global: Key Barriers to AI Implementation in Cybersecurity, in % of Respondents, August - October 2025
• Global: Organizations with a Process to Assess the Security of AI Tools Before Deployment, in % of Resp., 2025 - 2026
• Global: AI Security Reviews Before Deployment, by Organizational Resilience Level, in % of Resp., August - October 2025
• Global: Share of Consumers More Trusting of AI-Based Security Than Human-Monitored Security by Generation, in % of Respondents, 2025
• Global: Explainable AI and Model Governance Requirements in Financial Crime Analytics, March 2026

8. Global Economics of Fraud & Prevention (ROI)

• Global: Cyber Risk Complexity, Regulatory Pressure, and Security Investment Drivers, March 2026
• Global: Fraud Liability Expansion and Rising Monitoring Costs in Payment Ecosystems, March 2026
• Global: Cyber Threat Evolution, Regulatory Pressure, and Strategic Security Investment Drivers, March 2026
• Global: Rising Scam Losses, Reimbursement Pressure, and the Growing Cost Burden of Fraud, March 2026
• Global: Information Security Spending Expansion and Strategic Alignment with Digital Payment Growth, March 2026
• Global: Estimated Contribution of Key Structural Drivers to Fraud Detection and Prevention Market Growth, in % of Impact on Forecast CAGR, January 2026
• Global: Estimated Negative Contribution of Key Implementation and Data Constraints to Fraud Detection and Prevention Market Growth, in % of Negative Effect on Forecast CAGR, January 2026
• Global: AI-Driven Growth Drivers and Implement. Constraints in the Fraud Detection Market, March 2026

9. Global Market Size, Investment & Vendor Landscape

• Global: IT Spending Growth, Software Expansion, and Payments Infrastructure Investment, March 2026
• Global: Information Security End-User Spending Forecast, in USD billions, 2024, 2025f & 2026e
• Global: Rising Cybersecurity Investment Priorities and Technology Spending Expansion, March 2026
• Global: AI Adoption, Talent Shortages, and Growing Demand for Cybersecurity Solutions, March 2026
• Global: Fraud Detection and Prevention Market Size Growth, in USD billions, and Compound Annual Growth Rate, 2026e & 2031f
• Global: Estimated Share of Solution Platforms Versus Service Offerings, in % of Total Fraud Detection and Prevention Market Revenue, 2025
• Global: Estimated Share of Fraud Detection and Prevention Market Revenue by Organization Size, in % of Total Market Revenue, 2025

10. Global & Europe Regulatory & Regional Considerations

• Global: Expanding Risk, Compliance, and Resilience Mandates Across the Payments Industry, March 2026
• Global: Confirmation of Payee Frameworks, Trans. Integrity Controls, and Fast Payment Risk, March 2026
• Global: Interactive Authorization, Payee Verification, and Instant Conf. in Fast Payment Ecosystems, March 2026
• Global: Interoperability Standards, Data Governance, and Implem. in Payment Pre-Validation Sys., March 2026
• Global: Payment Infra. Modernization, Interoperability Expansion, and Real-Time Risk Foundations, March 2026
• Global: Instant Payment Expansion and the Transition Toward Real-Time Fraud Decisioning, March 2026
• Global: Real-Time Risk Scoring and Authorization-Stage Decisioning in Modern Payment Systems, March 2026
• Global: Continuous Verification and Behavioral Signals as a Core Control Layer for Digital Fraud, March 2026
• Global: Cyber Threat, Operational Risk Management, and Infrast. Resilience in Fast Payment Sys., March 2026
• Global: Cloud Concentration, Third-Party Dependencies, and Payment Infrastructure Resilience, March 2026
• Global: Scenario Testing, Sector-Wide Exercises, and Standardized Incident Report. in Payment Infr., March 2026
• Global: Incident Repor. Harmonization, Fraud Monitoring Expansion, and Payment Data Governance, March 2026
• Global: Cross-Industry Collab. and Intelligence Sharing as Key Pillars of Modern Fraud Prevention, March 2026
• Global: Organized Cybercrime Netw., Automated Fraud, and Cross-Border Criminal Supply Chains, March 2026
• Global: Cross-Border E-Commerce, Small-Parcel Trade, and Merchant Risk Management Implications, March 2026
• Global: Cross-Border E-Commerce Growth, Financial Crime Exposure, and Compliance Pressure, March 2026
• Global: Cashless Payment Expansion and Implications for Fraud Exposure, March 2026
• Global: Payment Modernization, Systemic Interdependence, and Coordinated Fraud and Cyber Resilience, March 2026
• Europe: Verification of Payee Frameworks and Pre-Validation Controls in Instant Payments, March 2026
• Europe: Strong Customer Authentic., Fraud Reduction Effect, and Fraud Displacement Dynamics, March 2026
• Europe: Authentication Integration into Payment Infrastructure Resilience and Cyber Risk Governance, March 2026

11. Global Future Outlook & Emerging Themes

• Global: Cybercrime, Digital Fraud, and Trust Risks as Emerging Financial Stability Concerns, March 2026
• Global: Cyber Risk Complexity, Payment Ecosystem Resilience, and Security-First Strategies, March 2026
• Global: Cross-Border Paym. Growth, Interconnected Ecosystems, and Rising Financial Crime Risk, March 2026
• Global: AI-Automated Commerce, Consent and Authentication Risk, and Identity-Fraud Exposure, March 2026
• Global: Cross-Border Payments Growth, Ecosystem Interdependence, and Collab. Fraud Prevention, March 2026