메인프레임 현대화 및 마이그레이션 서비스 시장 : 서비스 유형별, 조직 규모별, 도입 모델별, 이동 유형별, 업종별 - 세계 예측(2026-2032년)

The Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market was valued at USD 4.86 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 5.17 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.86%, reaching USD 7.74 billion by 2032.

A concise orientation to the strategic tensions, operational drivers, and decision imperatives that shape contemporary mainframe modernization programs across enterprises

The landscape of enterprise computing is undergoing a sustained transformation as organizations reassess the role of legacy mainframes in their digital strategies. Executive leaders face a dual imperative: preserve the critical business logic and transactional integrity that mainframes deliver while unlocking the agility, cost efficiencies, and innovation potential of modern platforms. This tension is driving a wave of modernization initiatives where program governance, risk management, and technology selection must converge to ensure continuity of service and predictable business outcomes.

In this context, the case for modernization is rarely binary; instead, it is highly contextual and shaped by regulatory constraints, skill availability, application criticality, and integration complexity. Decision makers need concise intelligence that clarifies trade-offs between lift-and-shift approaches and deeper rearchitecting investments, and that illuminates the operational impacts of moving workloads across cloud, hybrid, and on-premises environments. As enterprises embark on these journeys, they require frameworks that align technical choices with measurable business objectives, minimizing disruption while preserving mission-critical functions.

How evolving procurement models, workforce dynamics, and cloud-native practices are reshaping the execution and governance of mainframe modernization initiatives

The forces reshaping mainframe modernization extend beyond technology into organizational design, vendor economics, and talent dynamics. Emerging patterns include a pronounced shift toward cloud-native architectures for new development while existing transactional systems are selectively modernized through refactoring and replatforming. Alongside these technical shifts, there is an observable evolution in procurement practices: organizations increasingly favor outcome-based contracting and managed services that reduce internal execution risk and transfer lifecycle responsibilities to specialist providers.

Concurrently, labor market changes are accelerating the adoption of automation and tooling that abstract legacy complexity and codify institutional knowledge. This movement reduces dependency on scarce legacy skills but requires rigorous change management to embed new operating models. Interoperability priorities are prompting investments in API-led architectures and data fabrics that enable gradual migration without disrupting customer-facing services. Taken together, these transformative shifts create a practical roadmap where incremental modernization, governed by clear KPIs and supported by strategic vendor partnerships, yields sustainable modernization outcomes.

Navigating procurement, vendor selection, and deployment timing in light of the cumulative operational and financial effects stemming from United States tariffs announced for 2025

The cumulative impact of tariff policy changes announced for 2025 in the United States introduces a new dimension to the cost calculus and strategic planning of modernization programs. Tariff adjustments influence the total landed cost of hardware, imported software appliances, and certain third-party infrastructure components, thereby altering capital procurement strategies and vendor selection criteria. As a result, organizations are recalibrating sourcing decisions-favoring software-enabled services and cloud consumption models that internalize cross-border cost volatility and reduce exposure to hardware importation.

In response, procurement teams and architects are re-evaluating vendor localization, supply chain resilience, and contractual protections. Some enterprises are accelerating cloud-first migration roadmaps to avoid capital-intensive upgrades that would be subjected to tariff-induced price shifts, while others are negotiating longer-term fixed-fee arrangements with providers to stabilize operating cost projections. Additionally, tariff-related uncertainty is prompting a closer look at regional deployment options and the potential benefits of repatriating certain functions to domestic partners to mitigate policy risk. These dynamics underscore the importance of incorporating macroeconomic and trade policy scenarios into modernization planning to preserve budgetary integrity and program momentum.

Segmentation-driven insight that aligns organizational scale, deployment preferences, migration approaches, service modalities, and vertical-specific constraints into actionable modernization pathways

A nuanced understanding of segment-level drivers is essential to tailor modernization strategies that reflect organizational priorities and technical realities. Based on Organization Size, the market is studied across Large Enterprises and Small And Medium Enterprises, and this distinction matters because large enterprises typically emphasize chronological continuity, integrated governance, and conservative migration phasing, while small and medium enterprises often prioritize cost predictability, managed services, and rapid time-to-value. Based on Deployment Model, the market is studied across Cloud, Hybrid, and On Premises; the Cloud is further studied across Private Cloud and Public Cloud, which creates differentiated requirements for security posture, compliance mapping, and operational support.

Based on Migration Type, the market is studied across Lift And Shift, Rearchitecting, Refactoring, and Replatforming, and the chosen approach directly influences project duration, risk profile, and skillset requirements. Based on Service Type, the market is studied across Assessment And Planning, Managed Services, Migration And Porting, and Refactoring And Optimization, highlighting that demand spans advisory work through to long-term operational stewardship. Finally, based on Industry Vertical, the market is studied across Bfsi, Government And Defense, Healthcare, It And Telecom, Manufacturing, and Retail And Consumer Goods; the Bfsi is further studied across Banking, Capital Markets, and Insurance, and the Government And Defense is further studied across Federal and State And Local, and the Healthcare is further studied across Hospitals And Clinics and Pharmaceuticals, and the It And Telecom is further studied across It Services and Telecom, and the Manufacturing is further studied across Discrete and Process, and the Retail And Consumer Goods is further studied across Brick And Mortar and E Commerce. Collectively, these segmentation lenses enable tailored modernization roadmaps that align technical investment with regulatory constraints, operational cadence, and value creation opportunities.

Regional variations in regulatory pressure, vendor ecosystems, and talent availability that determine pragmatic modernization choices across the Americas, Europe Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific

Regional dynamics materially influence modernization choices, vendor ecosystems, and the availability of skilled resources. In the Americas, enterprise programs are often characterized by a strong emphasis on cloud adoption, commercial contracting flexibility, and a mature managed services market; consequently, many organizations pursue hybrid models that balance legacy reliability with cloud agility. In Europe, Middle East & Africa, regulatory regimes and data residency constraints shape architectures, while regional variation in vendor ecosystems drives a more heterogeneous set of deployment patterns and localized partnerships. In Asia-Pacific, rapid digitalization, diverse maturity levels across markets, and a focus on cost-efficient scaling encourage a mix of public cloud adoption and on-premises modernization where latency or sovereignty concerns prevail.

Understanding these geographic contours allows leaders to anticipate differences in vendor engagement models, compliance obligations, and talent access, and to structure modernization programs that respect local constraints while leveraging global best practices. Moreover, regional considerations inform decisions around centers of excellence, nearshoring strategies for migration execution, and selection of partners with proven multi-region delivery capabilities.

A characterization of vendor capabilities and partnership models that differentiate tooling, execution, managed operations, and multi-vendor orchestration in modernization engagements

Key companies operating in the ecosystem bring complementary strengths across advisory, tooling, migration execution, and long-term managed operations. Some providers emphasize deep mainframe transformation tooling and automated code conversion capabilities that accelerate replatforming and refactoring efforts, while others differentiate through outcome-oriented managed services that absorb operational risk and provide predictable run costs. There is a clear segmentation between firms that focus on lift-and-shift capabilities for rapid workload migration and those that deliver comprehensive rearchitecting services targeting cloud-native transformation.

Beyond technical prowess, successful vendors demonstrate mature governance frameworks, robust security practices, and the ability to integrate with enterprise CI/CD pipelines and observability platforms. Strategic alliances and ecosystem partnerships also play a decisive role: vendors that can orchestrate multi-vendor stacks and provide end-to-end accountability shorten procurement cycles and reduce coordination overhead. For buyers, vendor evaluation should therefore emphasize not only technical fit but also execution track record, contractual flexibility, and the capacity to scale delivery teams across geographies as projects expand from pilots to enterprise-wide programs.

Actionable recommendations for leaders to prioritize critical workloads, align commercial incentives, and build skills and governance that enable dependable mainframe modernization delivery

Industry leaders should pursue a deliberate, outcome-centric approach that balances incremental progress with strategic ambition. First, establish a modernization playbook that prioritizes critical workloads by business impact and risk, and that identifies short-term wins alongside multi-year replatforming initiatives. Second, favor contractual models that align incentives with measurable outcomes, including service-level commitments for run-state performance and defined acceptance criteria for migration waves. Third, invest in skills transition programs that combine targeted hiring with intensive upskilling, apprenticeship models, and knowledge capture to preserve institutional logic while adopting modern toolchains.

Additionally, leaders should incorporate trade policy scenario planning into procurement strategies to reduce exposure to tariff volatility, and deliberately select partners that offer flexible deployment models across cloud, hybrid, and on-premises environments. Finally, ensure that modernization programs embed robust observability, automated testing, and a phased rollback strategy to protect business continuity; these elements reduce operational risk and increase stakeholder confidence as initiatives scale from pilot stages to enterprise adoption.

A transparent and reproducible research approach combining interviews, case analysis, and document review to benchmark vendor capabilities and map policy and technology scenarios

The research underpinning this executive summary synthesizes primary and secondary inputs to form a rigorous and reproducible methodology. Primary inputs include structured interviews with enterprise technology leaders, program managers, and vendor executives, as well as qualitative case analyses of modernization engagements across diverse industries. These interviews were designed to uncover execution challenges, governance practices, and decision criteria that influence migration type selection and service provider engagement.

Secondary inputs comprise a comprehensive review of public policy announcements, tariff schedules affecting hardware and related infrastructure, vendor product documentation, and academic and industry literature on legacy modernization techniques. Analytical methods include cross-segmentation comparative analysis, scenario mapping for trade policy impacts, and vendor capability benchmarking focused on execution readiness, tooling maturity, and service portfolio breadth. Throughout, efforts were made to triangulate findings across multiple data sources to ensure robustness and to highlight areas where further, bespoke advisory engagement may be warranted.

Concluding synthesis that frames modernization as a staged, portfolio-driven imperative requiring governance, skills transition, and scenario planning for sustained transformation

In summary, mainframe modernization is a strategic imperative that requires calibrated decisions at the intersection of technology, procurement, and operations. Organizations that succeed do so by adopting modular migration strategies, selecting partners that offer outcome-oriented engagements, and embedding governance and skills transition mechanisms that preserve continuity. Trade policy developments, such as the United States tariffs for 2025, add complexity to procurement planning and highlight the need for scenario-based financial and sourcing strategies.

Looking ahead, modernization will continue to be shaped by the interplay of cloud economics, tooling innovation that automates legacy migration, and regional regulatory considerations. Executives should view modernization as a staged, portfolio-driven program rather than a single project, and should use structured research and targeted advisory support to translate strategic goals into executable roadmaps. With disciplined governance and the right blend of internal and external capabilities, organizations can modernize core systems while safeguarding operational resilience and unlocking new avenues for innovation.

Table of Contents

1. Preface

• 1.1. Objectives of the Study
• 1.2. Market Definition
• 1.3. Market Segmentation & Coverage
• 1.4. Years Considered for the Study
• 1.5. Currency Considered for the Study
• 1.6. Language Considered for the Study
• 1.7. Key Stakeholders

2. Research Methodology

• 2.1. Introduction
• 2.2. Research Design
  • 2.2.1. Primary Research
  • 2.2.2. Secondary Research
• 2.3. Research Framework
  • 2.3.1. Qualitative Analysis
  • 2.3.2. Quantitative Analysis
• 2.4. Market Size Estimation
  • 2.4.1. Top-Down Approach
  • 2.4.2. Bottom-Up Approach
• 2.5. Data Triangulation
• 2.6. Research Outcomes
• 2.7. Research Assumptions
• 2.8. Research Limitations

3. Executive Summary

• 3.1. Introduction
• 3.2. CXO Perspective
• 3.3. Market Size & Growth Trends
• 3.4. Market Share Analysis, 2025
• 3.5. FPNV Positioning Matrix, 2025
• 3.6. New Revenue Opportunities
• 3.7. Next-Generation Business Models
• 3.8. Industry Roadmap

4. Market Overview

• 4.1. Introduction
• 4.2. Industry Ecosystem & Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.2.1. Supply-Side Analysis
  • 4.2.2. Demand-Side Analysis
  • 4.2.3. Stakeholder Analysis
• 4.3. Porter's Five Forces Analysis
• 4.4. PESTLE Analysis
• 4.5. Market Outlook
  • 4.5.1. Near-Term Market Outlook (0-2 Years)
  • 4.5.2. Medium-Term Market Outlook (3-5 Years)
  • 4.5.3. Long-Term Market Outlook (5-10 Years)
• 4.6. Go-to-Market Strategy

5. Market Insights

• 5.1. Consumer Insights & End-User Perspective
• 5.2. Consumer Experience Benchmarking
• 5.3. Opportunity Mapping
• 5.4. Distribution Channel Analysis
• 5.5. Pricing Trend Analysis
• 5.6. Regulatory Compliance & Standards Framework
• 5.7. ESG & Sustainability Analysis
• 5.8. Disruption & Risk Scenarios
• 5.9. Return on Investment & Cost-Benefit Analysis

6. Cumulative Impact of United States Tariffs 2025

7. Cumulative Impact of Artificial Intelligence 2025

8. Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market, by Service Type

• 8.1. Assessment And Planning
• 8.2. Managed Services
• 8.3. Migration And Porting
• 8.4. Refactoring And Optimization

9. Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market, by Organization Size

• 9.1. Large Enterprises
• 9.2. Small And Medium Enterprises

10. Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market, by Deployment Model

• 10.1. Cloud
  • 10.1.1. Private Cloud
  • 10.1.2. Public Cloud
• 10.2. Hybrid
• 10.3. On Premises

11. Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market, by Migration Type

• 11.1. Lift And Shift
• 11.2. Rearchitecting
• 11.3. Refactoring
• 11.4. Replatforming

12. Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market, by Industry Vertical

• 12.1. Bfsi
  • 12.1.1. Banking
  • 12.1.2. Capital Markets
  • 12.1.3. Insurance
• 12.2. Government And Defense
  • 12.2.1. Federal
  • 12.2.2. State And Local
• 12.3. Healthcare
  • 12.3.1. Hospitals And Clinics
  • 12.3.2. Pharmaceuticals
• 12.4. It And Telecom
  • 12.4.1. It Services
  • 12.4.2. Telecom
• 12.5. Manufacturing
  • 12.5.1. Discrete
  • 12.5.2. Process
• 12.6. Retail And Consumer Goods
  • 12.6.1. Brick And Mortar
  • 12.6.2. E Commerce

13. Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market, by Region

• 13.1. Americas
  • 13.1.1. North America
  • 13.1.2. Latin America
• 13.2. Europe, Middle East & Africa
  • 13.2.1. Europe
  • 13.2.2. Middle East
  • 13.2.3. Africa
• 13.3. Asia-Pacific

14. Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market, by Group

• 14.1. ASEAN
• 14.2. GCC
• 14.3. European Union
• 14.4. BRICS
• 14.5. G7
• 14.6. NATO

15. Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market, by Country

• 15.1. United States
• 15.2. Canada
• 15.3. Mexico
• 15.4. Brazil
• 15.5. United Kingdom
• 15.6. Germany
• 15.7. France
• 15.8. Russia
• 15.9. Italy
• 15.10. Spain
• 15.11. China
• 15.12. India
• 15.13. Japan
• 15.14. Australia
• 15.15. South Korea

16. United States Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market

17. China Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market

18. Competitive Landscape

• 18.1. Market Concentration Analysis, 2025
  • 18.1.1. Concentration Ratio (CR)
  • 18.1.2. Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI)
• 18.2. Recent Developments & Impact Analysis, 2025
• 18.3. Product Portfolio Analysis, 2025
• 18.4. Benchmarking Analysis, 2025
• 18.5. Accenture plc
• 18.6. Amazon Web Services, Inc.
• 18.7. Capgemini SE
• 18.8. CGI Inc.
• 18.9. Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation
• 18.10. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
• 18.11. DXC Technology Company
• 18.12. EPAM Systems, Inc.
• 18.13. Ernst & Young Global Limited (EY)
• 18.14. Fujitsu Limited
• 18.15. Google LLC
• 18.16. HCL Technologies Limited
• 18.17. IBM Corporation
• 18.18. Infosys Limited
• 18.19. KPMG International Cooperative
• 18.20. Larsen & Toubro Infotech Limited (LTI)
• 18.21. Microsoft Corporation
• 18.22. NTT Data Corporation
• 18.23. Oracle Corporation
• 18.24. PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited
• 18.25. Slalom, LLC
• 18.26. Tata Consultancy Services Limited
• 18.27. Tech Mahindra Limited
• 18.28. Thoughtworks, Inc.
• 18.29. Wipro Limited