메인프레임 현대화 시장 : 유형별, 도입 모델별, 조직 규모별, 업계별 예측(2026-2032년)

The Mainframe Modernization Market was valued at USD 10.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 11.45 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 13.88%, reaching USD 25.15 billion by 2032.

Framing mainframe modernization as a strategic business priority that balances legacy stability with agility to enable sustainable digital transformation

Modernizing mainframe environments has evolved from a niche IT initiative into a strategic imperative for organizations that must reconcile legacy stability with modern agility. Leaders are increasingly tasked with retiring technical debt while preserving mission-critical functionality, ensuring continuity for high-volume transaction processing and regulatory compliance. This dual mandate requires careful orchestration across architecture, operations, and business stakeholders to avoid disruption while unlocking the flexibility that modern infrastructures and practices provide.

As enterprises reassess their technology foundations, modernization is framed not only as a cost exercise but as a catalyst for innovation. Executives seek pathways that reduce time-to-market for new services, enable real-time analytics on historical data, and create a more responsive digital experience for customers and partners. Consequently, modernization programs are being designed to balance immediate risk mitigation with long-term adaptability, emphasizing phased approaches and measurable milestones to maintain confidence among business owners and technical teams.

Transitioning from monolithic mainframe architectures to modular, service-oriented designs also redefines organizational capabilities. Cross-functional collaboration between application owners, cloud architects, security teams, and vendors becomes essential to realize the full potential of modernization. Ultimately, executives need a governance model that constrains risk, clarifies accountability, and supports continuous delivery of value throughout the modernization lifecycle.

Understanding the converging forces of cloud-native architectures, hybrid deployment choices, and cultural shifts that are reshaping mainframe modernization strategies

The landscape for mainframe modernization is shifting rapidly under the influence of cloud-native architectures, developer-centric toolchains, and heightened regulatory expectations. Modernization now emphasizes modularity and interoperability, with organizations adopting containerization, API gateways, and event-driven patterns to decouple legacy workloads and accelerate feature delivery. This technological shift goes hand in hand with cultural and process changes that prioritize continuous integration, automated testing, and iterative deployment to reduce time-to-value.

Concurrently, the rise of hybrid and multi-cloud strategies has altered procurement and vendor selection dynamics. Organizations are increasingly pragmatic about where workloads should run, choosing deployment models that best satisfy performance, security, and cost constraints. As a result, modernization roadmaps feature a mix of rehosting and replatforming for latency-sensitive workloads, while refactoring and rebuilding are reserved for applications where business differentiation or technical debt removal justifies deeper investment. Each approach presents distinct operational and talent implications, prompting organizations to invest in retraining and new governance frameworks.

These transformative shifts are also driving new partnerships between enterprises and technology providers. Ecosystem collaboration that pairs domain expertise with engineering execution enables organizations to accelerate modernization while managing risk. In short, the modern landscape rewards flexible architectures, disciplined delivery practices, and a clear articulation of business outcomes tied to technical decisions.

Evaluating how evolving tariff landscapes and supply-chain shifts are altering procurement, architecture decisions, and timeline trade-offs for modernization programs

Policy changes and trade measures introduced in recent years have implications for technology procurement, capital expenditure planning, and hardware supply chains that affect modernization efforts. Tariff adjustments can increase the total cost of imported infrastructure components, including specialized servers and networking equipment, which influences decisions between on-premise renewals and cloud-based alternatives. Organizations that previously favored capital purchases are now recalculating total cost of ownership across both purchase and lifecycle management scenarios.

Beyond direct procurement impacts, tariffs introduce second-order effects on vendor negotiating leverage and lead times for critical components. For some modernization programs, longer procurement cycles and higher equipment costs reinforce the business case for cloud migration or hybrid deployments that reduce reliance on physical hardware refreshes. Conversely, entities with restrictive data residency or regulatory constraints may find their modernization timelines affected by added costs and supply uncertainty, requiring contingency planning and greater emphasis on software-led modernization tactics.

In response to these dynamics, procurement and architecture teams are collaborating more closely to model alternative deployment scenarios, emphasize vendor diversity, and evaluate software-first modernization routes such as rehosting and refactoring. By integrating tariff sensitivity into scenario planning, organizations can reduce exposure to supply-chain shocks and maintain momentum on modernization initiatives despite evolving trade landscapes.

Mapping modernization choices across type, deployment model, organization size, and industry vertical to align technical paths with strategic objectives and constraints

Segmenting modernization initiatives clarifies which strategies deliver the most value under different technical and business constraints. When classification is done based on Type, organizations commonly consider Rebuilding when legacy code is unsalvageable, Refactoring when incremental code improvements can unlock agility, Rehosting to lift-and-shift workloads with minimal change, Replacing to swap legacy systems for modern commercial solutions, and Replatforming to move applications onto new runtimes or managed platforms. Each of these paths has implications for effort, risk, and future extensibility, so teams must match choice to long-term strategic objectives.

Similarly, when segmentation is assessed by Deployment Model, distinctions between Cloud, Hybrid, and On-Premise approaches influence architectural decisions, operational tooling, and compliance strategies. Cloud-first models favor elasticity and managed services, hybrid approaches balance on-site control with cloud agility, and on-premise deployments remain relevant for latency-sensitive or highly regulated environments. Organizational scale also matters: based on Organization Size, solutions for Large Enterprises often prioritize governance, integration complexity, and legacy interoperability, while Small And Medium Enterprises commonly prioritize speed, cost predictability, and simplified operational models.

Industry context further refines segmentation: based on Industry Vertical, modernization priorities and risk tolerances vary significantly across Banking, Financial Services & Insurance (BFSI), Energy & Utilities, Government & Public Sector, Healthcare & Life Sciences, IT & Telecommunications, Retail & E-commerce, and Transportation & Logistics. Each vertical imposes unique regulatory, performance, and operational constraints that shape whether teams prioritize security, throughput, data sovereignty, or customer-facing agility. By aligning segmentation across type, deployment model, organization size, and industry vertical, leaders can design targeted modernization roadmaps that balance short-term feasibility with strategic outcomes.

Assessing how geographic dynamics and regional regulatory landscapes shape modernization priorities, partner strategies, and deployment choices across global markets

Regional considerations fundamentally alter how modernization programs are structured, funded, and executed. In the Americas, organizations tend to emphasize rapid adoption of cloud services and vendor-led migration tools, supported by mature managed services markets and a strong focus on customer experience and digital channels. This environment encourages experimentation with hybrid architectures and incentivizes investments in automation to accelerate modernization timelines while managing operational risk.

In Europe, Middle East & Africa, regulatory requirements, data sovereignty concerns, and a diverse vendor landscape shape more cautious or bespoke modernization trajectories. Organizations in these regions often prioritize compliance-driven architectures and place a premium on control over data flows, which can lead to a hybrid posture or localized cloud deployments. In contrast, Asia-Pacific exhibits a heterogeneous mix of approaches driven by both large-scale digitization programs and rapidly growing cloud adoption. High-growth markets in Asia-Pacific combine aggressive modernization ambitions with an emphasis on scalable, cost-efficient infrastructures, while mature economies in the region often focus on interoperability and modernization at enterprise scale.

Across regions, geopolitical factors, local talent availability, and partner ecosystems influence whether organizations lean toward self-managed transformations or engage external integrators. By accounting for these geographic dynamics, leaders can better sequence investments, select appropriate partners, and tailor governance to regional requirements and operational realities.

Identifying vendor differentiation through migration expertise, industry accelerators, and partnership models that lower risk and accelerate modernization outcomes

The competitive landscape for mainframe modernization services blends traditional systems integrators, cloud providers, and specialized transformation firms that offer domain-specific capabilities. Successful providers differentiate through deep application migration expertise, tool-assisted code analysis, and proven frameworks for preserving transactional integrity during transitions. Firms that combine migration accelerators with advisory services tend to reduce program risk and improve predictability, enabling clients to pursue phased modernization strategies while maintaining operational continuity.

Partnership models are increasingly important; ecosystem partners that provide complementary capabilities-such as managed services, security, and data modernization-help clients bridge capability gaps quickly. Vendors that invest in industry-specific accelerators demonstrate more immediate value in regimens such as banking or healthcare, where compliance and transactional throughput are critical. Additionally, providers that offer strong training and knowledge-transfer programs help organizations build internal competency, which is essential for realizing long-term returns from modernization investments.

Selection criteria for vendors now emphasize transparency in methodologies, demonstrable success with similar legacy environments, and robust support models for post-migration operations. As a result, buyers prioritize partners that present clear migration roadmaps, proven test strategies, and mechanisms for incremental rollout to reduce disruption and preserve business continuity throughout the modernization journey.

Actionable leadership imperatives for prioritizing workloads, structuring governance, and embedding continuous delivery to de-risk modernization programs

Leaders embarking on modernization should begin with a business-driven assessment that ties technical choices to measurable outcomes such as time-to-market, resiliency, and customer experience. Establishing clear objectives enables teams to prioritize which workloads to modernize first and to select the most suitable technical approach-whether that is rehosting to achieve near-term cost predictability, refactoring to enable cloud-native benefits, or rebuilding to capture strategic differentiation. Clarity of purpose reduces scope creep and aligns stakeholders around achievable milestones.

Governance and talent are equally critical. Executives should create cross-functional steering committees that include business owners, security, cloud architects, and procurement to accelerate decision-making and ensure accountability. Investing in upskilling and targeted hiring will mitigate execution risk while fostering a culture that embraces change. For procurement and architecture teams, adopting flexible contracting models and engaging multiple vendors can improve negotiating leverage and reduce single-supplier risk.

Finally, operationalize modernization by embedding observability, automated testing, and continuous delivery practices into every migration phase. Prioritize incremental value delivery, validate assumptions with short proof-of-concept experiments, and maintain rigorous rollback strategies. By combining decisive governance, pragmatic technical choices, and continuous validation, organizations can modernize core systems while maintaining the reliability that their operations and customers depend upon.

A transparent, practitioner-driven methodology combining executive interviews, technical reviews, and case study validation to ground modernization insights in real-world experience

This research synthesizes qualitative and quantitative inputs to build a holistic understanding of modernization practices, constraints, and outcomes. Primary insights are derived from structured interviews with technical leaders, procurement executives, and transformation program managers who have direct responsibility for legacy modernization initiatives. These conversations provide grounded perspectives on vendor selection, migration sequencing, and organizational readiness, informing the practical recommendations included herein.

To supplement primary input, the study reviewed publicly available technical documentation, vendor white papers, and standards guidance to validate migration patterns and tooling trends. Case study analysis of cross-industry modernization programs was used to identify recurring risk factors and effective mitigation strategies. Methodologically, the research emphasizes triangulation-cross-referencing interview findings with secondary technical sources and expert reviews-to ensure that conclusions reflect robust, real-world experience rather than isolated anecdotes.

Throughout the research cycle, careful attention was paid to reproducibility and transparency. Assumptions about migration approaches and deployment models were documented, and validation steps were performed with participating practitioners to ensure accuracy. The resulting methodology creates a practical, evidence-based foundation for leaders to assess modernization pathways and apply the findings to their organization's unique constraints and objectives.

Concluding synthesis that reframes modernization as a strategic enabler requiring balanced technical choices, rigorous governance, and sustained organizational investment

Mainframe modernization is no longer optional for organizations seeking sustained competitiveness; it is an essential enabler of agility, resilience, and continued innovation. Successful programs balance short-term stability with long-term strategic goals by selecting modernization approaches that reflect workload criticality, regulatory constraints, and the organization's ability to absorb change. When executed with disciplined governance and iterative validation, modernization yields improved operational responsiveness, simpler integration with modern ecosystems, and new avenues for data-driven innovation.

However, modernization programs must also navigate external pressures such as supply-chain dynamics and policy shifts that influence procurement and deployment choices. Organizations that proactively incorporate these externalities into scenario planning and vendor selection enjoy more predictable execution and can more readily adapt to emerging constraints. Equally important is the human dimension: investing in talent, change management, and knowledge transfer determines whether modernization outcomes are sustainable.

In summary, leaders who combine a pragmatic mix of technical approaches, clear governance, and continuous delivery practices will transform legacy constraints into strategic advantages, enabling faster innovation while preserving the reliability customers and regulators expect.

Table of Contents

1. Preface

• 1.1. Objectives of the Study
• 1.2. Market Definition
• 1.3. Market Segmentation & Coverage
• 1.4. Years Considered for the Study
• 1.5. Currency Considered for the Study
• 1.6. Language Considered for the Study
• 1.7. Key Stakeholders

2. Research Methodology

• 2.1. Introduction
• 2.2. Research Design
  • 2.2.1. Primary Research
  • 2.2.2. Secondary Research
• 2.3. Research Framework
  • 2.3.1. Qualitative Analysis
  • 2.3.2. Quantitative Analysis
• 2.4. Market Size Estimation
  • 2.4.1. Top-Down Approach
  • 2.4.2. Bottom-Up Approach
• 2.5. Data Triangulation
• 2.6. Research Outcomes
• 2.7. Research Assumptions
• 2.8. Research Limitations

3. Executive Summary

• 3.1. Introduction
• 3.2. CXO Perspective
• 3.3. Market Size & Growth Trends
• 3.4. Market Share Analysis, 2025
• 3.5. FPNV Positioning Matrix, 2025
• 3.6. New Revenue Opportunities
• 3.7. Next-Generation Business Models
• 3.8. Industry Roadmap

4. Market Overview

• 4.1. Introduction
• 4.2. Industry Ecosystem & Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.2.1. Supply-Side Analysis
  • 4.2.2. Demand-Side Analysis
  • 4.2.3. Stakeholder Analysis
• 4.3. Porter's Five Forces Analysis
• 4.4. PESTLE Analysis
• 4.5. Market Outlook
  • 4.5.1. Near-Term Market Outlook (0-2 Years)
  • 4.5.2. Medium-Term Market Outlook (3-5 Years)
  • 4.5.3. Long-Term Market Outlook (5-10 Years)
• 4.6. Go-to-Market Strategy

5. Market Insights

• 5.1. Consumer Insights & End-User Perspective
• 5.2. Consumer Experience Benchmarking
• 5.3. Opportunity Mapping
• 5.4. Distribution Channel Analysis
• 5.5. Pricing Trend Analysis
• 5.6. Regulatory Compliance & Standards Framework
• 5.7. ESG & Sustainability Analysis
• 5.8. Disruption & Risk Scenarios
• 5.9. Return on Investment & Cost-Benefit Analysis

6. Cumulative Impact of United States Tariffs 2025

7. Cumulative Impact of Artificial Intelligence 2025

8. Mainframe Modernization Market, by Type

• 8.1. Rebuilding
• 8.2. Refactoring
• 8.3. Rehosting
• 8.4. Replacing
• 8.5. Replatforming

9. Mainframe Modernization Market, by Deployment Model

• 9.1. Cloud
• 9.2. Hybrid
• 9.3. On-Premise

10. Mainframe Modernization Market, by Organization Size

• 10.1. Large Enterprises
• 10.2. Small And Medium Enterprises

11. Mainframe Modernization Market, by Industry Vertical

• 11.1. Banking, Financial Services & Insurance (BFSI)
• 11.2. Energy & Utilities
• 11.3. Government & Public Sector
• 11.4. Healthcare & Life Sciences
• 11.5. IT & Telecommunications
• 11.6. Retail & E-commerce
• 11.7. Transportation & Logistics

12. Mainframe Modernization Market, by Region

• 12.1. Americas
  • 12.1.1. North America
  • 12.1.2. Latin America
• 12.2. Europe, Middle East & Africa
  • 12.2.1. Europe
  • 12.2.2. Middle East
  • 12.2.3. Africa
• 12.3. Asia-Pacific

13. Mainframe Modernization Market, by Group

• 13.1. ASEAN
• 13.2. GCC
• 13.3. European Union
• 13.4. BRICS
• 13.5. G7
• 13.6. NATO

14. Mainframe Modernization Market, by Country

• 14.1. United States
• 14.2. Canada
• 14.3. Mexico
• 14.4. Brazil
• 14.5. United Kingdom
• 14.6. Germany
• 14.7. France
• 14.8. Russia
• 14.9. Italy
• 14.10. Spain
• 14.11. China
• 14.12. India
• 14.13. Japan
• 14.14. Australia
• 14.15. South Korea

15. United States Mainframe Modernization Market

16. China Mainframe Modernization Market

17. Competitive Landscape

• 17.1. Market Concentration Analysis, 2025
  • 17.1.1. Concentration Ratio (CR)
  • 17.1.2. Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI)
• 17.2. Recent Developments & Impact Analysis, 2025
• 17.3. Product Portfolio Analysis, 2025
• 17.4. Benchmarking Analysis, 2025
• 17.5. Accenture Plc
• 17.6. Amazon.com Inc
• 17.7. Apexon, Inc.
• 17.8. Atos SE
• 17.9. BMC Software, Inc.
• 17.10. Capgemini SE
• 17.11. Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation
• 17.12. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
• 17.13. DXC Technology Company
• 17.14. Ensono, LLC
• 17.15. EPAM Systems, Inc.
• 17.16. Fujitsu Ltd
• 17.17. HCL Technologies Ltd
• 17.18. Hexaware Technologies Ltd
• 17.19. HTC Global Services Inc.
• 17.20. IBA GROUP
• 17.21. Infosys Ltd
• 17.22. Innova Solutions, Inc.
• 17.23. International Business Machines Corporation
• 17.24. Luxoft by DXC Technology
• 17.25. Microsoft Corporation
• 17.26. Mphasis Ltd
• 17.27. Oracle Corporation
• 17.28. Rocket Software, Inc
• 17.29. Software AG