중국의 HBM : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the China HBM market size is projected to be USD 240.44 million in 2025, USD 301.88 million in 2026, and reach USD 943.57 million by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 25.60% from 2026 to 2031.

This report is Segmented by HBM Type (HBM2E and Earlier Generations, HBM3, HBM3E, HBM4, and More), Technology Node (1X and Above Legacy Nodes, and More), End Use Industry (Cloud Service Providers and Hyperscalers, and More), Application (AI Model Training, and More) and Packaging Type (2. 5D Interposer-Based Packaging, Fan-Out Advanced Packaging, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

China HBM Market Trends and Insights

Export-Control-Induced Import Substitution Reshapes Procurement Logic

US export controls remain the most disruptive force in the China HBM market because they changed both sourcing options and investment timing. In December 2024, the Bureau of Industry and Security expanded controls to cover HBM, DRAM, and advanced packaging semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which sharply narrowed access to HBM3 and higher products for Chinese buyers. That shift pushed Chinese AI chip companies to rely on previously secured inventory while advancing domestic qualification programs much faster than a typical product cycle would allow. The issue is not only industrial policy, because delayed HBM supply directly limits the shipment pace of domestic AI accelerators and slows the deployment of new computing clusters. The China HBM market, therefore, moved from a cost-and-performance discussion toward a supply-assurance model in which local capacity carries strategic value even before it reaches full-scale economics. CXMT's June 2026 IPO approval also showed how quickly capital formation followed this change in trade policy, with the new funding directed toward capacity and HBM commercialization.

Accelerating AI Server and GPU Memory Density Requirements Set the Demand Baseline

The demand floor for the China HBM market is rising because each new AI accelerator generation requires more capacity and more bandwidth per device. Huawei's Ascend 950PR, launched in March 2026, integrated 112 GB of HBM and delivered 1.6 TB/s of memory bandwidth, which marked a major increase over the earlier platform. The next step was already visible in the Ascend 950DT roadmap, which moved toward 144 GB of HBM and 4 TB/s of bandwidth for more demanding training and inference tasks. This matters because memory requirements do not increase linearly, and each chip generation increases the strain on local HBM availability, packaging readiness, and validation cycles. The China HBM market is therefore being boosted by a technical requirement that is difficult to defer, especially as domestic accelerator programs aim to match global performance benchmarks. Higher memory density has also widened the importance of packaging and thermal integration, so demand growth now reaches well beyond memory die production alone.

Yield Losses in High-Stack HBM Manufacturing Constrain Volume Scale-Up

Yield remains a serious restraint because high-stack HBM production becomes harder with every additional layer and every tighter bonding tolerance. The original draft noted that even when per-layer performance is strong, cumulative stack yield can fall meaningfully before packaging is complete, slowing and increasing the cost of scale-up. This issue is broader than a single process step because it touches through-silicon via formation, bonding consistency, thermal control, test coverage, and final package reliability. The China HBM market will therefore remain sensitive to production maturity until domestic suppliers can stabilize commercially viable yields across engineering and early mass production runs. Export restrictions also matter here because they reduce access to foreign tools, calibration support, and yield-improvement know-how that would normally help shorten the ramp period.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. China-Specific AI Compute Localization Programs Create Captive Demand
2. Rapid Expansion of Domestic Advanced Packaging Capacity Removes a Critical Bottleneck
3. Limited Access to Leading-Edge EDA and Process Tools Imposes a Structural Ceiling

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

HBM2E and earlier generations accounted for 44.17% of the China HBM market in 2025, indicating that the installed demand base still relied on legacy supply during a period of restricted access to newer imported products. That leading share did not reflect a settled customer preference, because domestic AI programs increasingly require higher bandwidth classes that older HBM cannot support for long. The segment remained important because pre-control procurement had created a temporary inventory cushion, which gave buyers a short window to sustain deployments while local alternatives moved through qualification. In the China HBM industry, this legacy tier therefore acted as a bridge rather than a stable end state. HBM3 and HBM3E sit in the middle of that transition, because they connect current deployment needs with the next stage of domestic production readiness.

HBM4 is projected to expand at a 26.57% CAGR through 2031, which makes it the clearest marker of where long-term product demand is heading. That growth reflects procurement plans that are already looking beyond present supply constraints and toward performance levels needed by later accelerator generations. The segment is still early in commercial terms, but its growth signal shows that Chinese buyers are not planning around yesterday's specification set. HBM4E and later generations remain smaller today, yet the direction of demand suggests that once tooling, yield, and packaging barriers ease, these tiers could gain momentum quickly. The China HBM market is therefore being pulled forward by future performance requirements even while present shipments still lean on older memory families.

Advanced nodes below 1Z accounted for 49.63% of the China HBM market size in 2025, which confirms that the leading demand pool is already concentrated around the densest die configurations available. This node category also represented the fastest-moving part of the technology mix, because domestic accelerators need higher density and tighter performance envelopes to remain viable in training and inference deployments. That leaves 1Z and 1Y nodes with an important but narrower role, mainly in workloads where cost, availability, and compatibility still matter more than absolute bandwidth. Older 1X and above nodes continue to serve legacy and less demanding use cases, but they are losing relative weight as AI-centered deployments become more dominant. The China HBM market is therefore consolidating around advanced nodes for structural reasons tied to chip architecture, not only for marketing or roadmap reasons.

This shift also explains why the discussion of technology nodes cannot be separated from export controls and tool access. The draft linked advanced node progression to the same process capabilities that remain exposed to lithography and EDA constraints, meaning supply improvements will not advance evenly across all node tiers. In practical terms, leading node demand can stay strong even when local supply remains tight, because customer requirements keep moving upward regardless of domestic manufacturing readiness. The China HBM industry is therefore likely to show a persistent gap between the most attractive node segment and the easiest node segment to supply. That imbalance is one reason the advanced-node tier held the lead in 2025 while also shaping the strongest pull on future investment.

Complete Report Scope:

• By HBM Type
  • HBM2E and Earlier Generations
  • HBM3
  • HBM3E
  • HBM4
  • HBM4E
• By Technology Node
  • 1X and above Legacy Nodes
  • 1Y Node
  • 1Z Node
  • Advanced Nodes below 1Z
• By End Use Industry
  • Cloud Service Providers and Hyperscalers
  • Internet Platforms and AI Model Developers
  • Government, Defense, Research, and Academic Institutions
  • Enterprise Data Centers
  • Telecommunications Operators and Network Equipment Providers
  • Other End Use Industries
• By Application
  • AI Model Training
  • AI Model Inference
  • HPC and Scientific Computing
  • Professional Graphics, Rendering, and Visualization
  • Network and Telecom Processing
  • Other Applications
• By Packaging Type
  • 2.5D Interposer-Based Packaging
  • 3D Stacking
  • Fan-Out Advanced Packaging

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. ChangXin Memory Technologies, Inc.
2. Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
3. SK hynix Inc.
4. Micron Technology, Inc.
5. Tongfu Microelectronics Co., Ltd.
6. Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology Co., Ltd.
7. NAURA Technology Group Co., Ltd.
8. Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.
9. Piotech Inc.
10. ACM Research, Inc.
11. Shenzhen Kingsemi Co., Ltd.
12. U-Precision Technology Co., Ltd.
13. Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd.
14. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation
15. Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co., Ltd.
16. Alibaba Cloud Computing Ltd.
17. Tencent Holdings Limited
18. Sugon Information Industry Co., Ltd.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Accelerating AI Server and GPU Memory Density Requirements
  • 4.2.2 China-Specific AI Compute Localization Programs
  • 4.2.3 Rapid Expansion of Domestic Advanced Packaging Capacity
  • 4.2.4 Export-Control-Induced Import Substitution
  • 4.2.5 Hybrid Bonding and TSV Ecosystem Catch-Up
  • 4.2.6 Hyperscale Cloud Procurement of Domestic Memory
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Limited Access to Leading-Edge EDA and Process Tools
  • 4.3.2 Yield Losses in High-Stack HBM Manufacturing
  • 4.3.3 Tight Qualification Cycles for AI Accelerator Customers
  • 4.3.4 Dependence on Imported Advanced Materials and Substrates
• 4.4 Supply Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.7.1 Threat Of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power Of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power Of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat Of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

• 5.1 By HBM Type
  • 5.1.1 HBM2E and Earlier Generations
  • 5.1.2 HBM3
  • 5.1.3 HBM3E
  • 5.1.4 HBM4
  • 5.1.5 HBM4E
• 5.2 By Technology Node
  • 5.2.1 1X and above Legacy Nodes
  • 5.2.2 1Y Node
  • 5.2.3 1Z Node
  • 5.2.4 Advanced Nodes below 1Z
• 5.3 By End Use Industry
  • 5.3.1 Cloud Service Providers and Hyperscalers
  • 5.3.2 Internet Platforms and AI Model Developers
  • 5.3.3 Government, Defense, Research, and Academic Institutions
  • 5.3.4 Enterprise Data Centers
  • 5.3.5 Telecommunications Operators and Network Equipment Providers
  • 5.3.6 Other End Use Industries
• 5.4 By Application
  • 5.4.1 AI Model Training
  • 5.4.2 AI Model Inference
  • 5.4.3 HPC and Scientific Computing
  • 5.4.4 Professional Graphics, Rendering, and Visualization
  • 5.4.5 Network and Telecom Processing
  • 5.4.6 Other Applications
• 5.5 By Packaging Type
  • 5.5.1 2.5D Interposer-Based Packaging
  • 5.5.2 3D Stacking
  • 5.5.3 Fan-Out Advanced Packaging

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 ChangXin Memory Technologies, Inc.
  • 6.4.2 Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.3 SK hynix Inc.
  • 6.4.4 Micron Technology, Inc.
  • 6.4.5 Tongfu Microelectronics Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.6 Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.7 NAURA Technology Group Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.8 Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.
  • 6.4.9 Piotech Inc.
  • 6.4.10 ACM Research, Inc.
  • 6.4.11 Shenzhen Kingsemi Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.12 U-Precision Technology Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.13 Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.14 Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation
  • 6.4.15 Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.16 Alibaba Cloud Computing Ltd.
  • 6.4.17 Tencent Holdings Limited
  • 6.4.18 Sugon Information Industry Co., Ltd.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

• 7.1 White-Space And Unmet-Need Assessment